000
AGXX40 KNHC 240608
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
230 AM MON JUL 24 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OF THE CONUS WILL SOON OVERTAKE 
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS STALLED ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD 
N AMERICA STILL EVIDENT ONLY TO THE N OF 33N. A TUTT DOMINATES 
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 
31N32W... 25N48W...19N72W AND 8N85W. SEPARATING THESE UPPER 
TROUGHS IS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N76W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING NEAR 
27N90W. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NE CRESTING 
NEAR 39N60W IN 36 HOURS WITH THE PARENT ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING NE 
CAUSING ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND THEN REMAIN QUASI 
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN THEREAFTER ALLOWING THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH TO 
SHIFT W WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND A TUTT 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALL BY FRI.   

AT THE LOW LEVELS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHIFTING N WITH 
TIME...CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG 31N60W 27N80W TO 29N91W. THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE NRN GULF OF 
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS AS EXPECTED AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS 
THE RIDGE SHIFTS N...LYING ALONG 28N ACROSS THE ATLC AND FL AND 
INTO SRN MS BY SUNRISE TUE. THE RIDGE WILL BOW SLIGHTLY S OVER 
THE ATLC NEAR 28N70W BUT SHIFT N OVER FL INTO SRN GA BY SUNRISE 
THU. BY DAY 5 THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ALONG 31N ACROSS THE 
ATLC AND FL THEN 32N WESTWARD TO TX. SLY 15-20 KT SEAS TO 6 FT 
JUST E OF N FL WILL DECREASE LATE TODAY. SLY WIND/SEAS WILL 
INCREASE IN SLY FLOW...15-20 KT...OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W HAS MOVED W AT 18 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS 
THROUGH AN AREA DOMINATED BY DRY UPPER AIR. THUS CONVECTION HAS 
BEEN SUPPRESSED BUT THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING AS EXPECTED WITH 
QSCAT INDICATING 20-30 KT. MY MARINE GRAPHIC WAVE PSN'S ARE...
80W SUNRISE TODAY AND WAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS 
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. MODELS STILL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON 
STRENGTH AND AREA OF GALE WINDS...BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS 
WARNING IN EFFECT THIS MORNING AT 06Z FOR WATERS S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 77W-73W...AND WILL CONTINUE TIL ABOUT SUNSET TUE AS 
FORECAST PAST SEVERAL DAYS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N BETWEEN 64W-62W IS STILL DIFFICULT TO 
DELINEATE IN THE LATEST QSCAT PASSES...BUT A SLIGHT CYCLONIC 
WIND SHIFT IS NOTED IN SHIP REPORTS NE CARIBBEAN AT 24/00Z. 
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE W AT 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS 
CURRENTLY FLARING OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 8N67W ATTM...SO OUR PSN OF 
WAVE AXIS MAY BE ACCURATE. WILL FORECAST WAVE PSN AT 67W SUNRISE 
TOADY...73W SUNRISE TUE...79W SUNRISE WED...85W SUNRISE THU WITH 
NORTHERN EXTENSION POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE 
FRI. EXPECT 15-20 KT E OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED AGAIN BY A BROAD CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION WITH A LOW PRES ALONG AXIS NEAR 15N41W ATTM. A 
COUPLE TENTHS CONVECTION WELL SW OVER THE SW QUAD CONTINUE. 
GFS HAS BACK OFF ON LOW PRES CONTINUING ALONG THE WAVE...AND 
OTHER MODELS HAVE VIRTUALLY NO INDICATION AFTER 48 HOURS SO I 
WILL MOVE A 1011 MB LOW WNW THRU 48 HOURS THEN DROP MENTION ON 
72 HOUR GRAPHICS. 

.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...GALE WARNING TILL 26/00Z...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. 
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON