000
AGXX40 KNHC 231705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM SUN JUL 23 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SE TEXAS 
COAST AND GULF COASTAL STATES.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF 
TROUGH AXIS ENABLES DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG GULF AND ATLC
COASTAL WATERS.  

ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 27N76W ADDS UPPER DIFFLUENCE OFF FLORIDA 
ATLC COAST WHERE MORE CONVECTION IS SEEN.  E PAC UPPER RIDGE 
DUMPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS YUCATAN INTO GULF AND ATLC 
BASINS. 

GFS FORECAST DENIES ENTRY OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO GULF AS 
REBUILDING ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO NRN GULF.  SO MOST OF GULF 
OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND ATLC BASIN TO REMAIN IN MOIST SIDE OF 
SOLUTION FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 

DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER RIDGE...SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 
WELL N OF AREA THRU 25N65W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO CYCLONIC VORTEX 
AT 14N74W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALONG TROUGH AXIS...BUT MOISTURE S 
OF VORTEX DEVELOPING PLENTY OF CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND 
EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN UNDER UPPER SHEAR ZONE.  

AT THE SURFACE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THERMAL LOW PRES 
OVER COLOMBIA AND REBUILDING RIDGE OVER ATLC EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TONIGHT THRU TUE.
GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL MODELS WITH 925 MB WINDS TO 45 KT 
WHILE NOGAPS AND UKMET HOLDING AT 35-40 AT 850 MB FOR CONGRUENT 
AREA.   

OTHER MAIN FEATURE IS SURFACE LOW PRES FORMING IN SW BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NW APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WITHIN EARLY TUE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW PROMISES PLENTY OF 
RAINFALL WITH THIS FEATURE EVEN IF WINDS DO NOT HAVE TIME TO 
BUILD UP.  WEATHER RECON PLANE TO INVESTIGATE AREA MON.
UPLIFTING FEATURE IS NORTHERNMOST TIP OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W 
AT 15 KT.  

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W MOVE W AT 15 KT UNDER DRY AIR 
MASS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CARIBBEAN.  
LITTLE IN CONVECTION BUT COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPLY UPLIFT TO 
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ONCE IT GETS W OF UPPER CYCLONIC VORTEX.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W JUST INSIDE OF TRPCL ATLC WATERS 
ALSO HAS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT HAS 
INCREASED WINDS OVER AREA AND LIKELY TO KEEP THEM HIGH AS IT 
MOVES INTO ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.     

.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE...AMZ084...AMZ086. 
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES