000 AGXX40 KNHC 230629 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM SUN JUL 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A TUTT EXTENDS THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 37N70W...32N79W... 28N88W...AND 25N102W. A SECOND TUTT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 45N27W...29N40W...23N67W AND 12N83W. SEPARATING THE TUTT'S...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR OVER THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W AND ANOTHER...APPARENTLY NOW AN INDEPENDENT CIRCULATION IS OVER WRN MEXICO AT 19N105W. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. GLOBAL MODELS HAD AND STILL FORECAST THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE TODAY...AND INDEED IT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING RAPIDLY ATTM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAHAMIAN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD A RIDGE W TO THE TX COAST TONIGHT AND FURTHER W ACROSS TX ON MON. THE ASSOCIATED NE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO 31N69W WILL SHIFT E ALONG 31N TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS LATE MON. EFFECTIVELY...THIS WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CONUS SHORTWAVE ALLOWING IT TO LOSE ITS PUSH AND STALLING OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE PUSHING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS N OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE...ALL AS EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS GLOBAL RUNS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE ERN TUTT WILL SHIFT W OVER THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SETTING UP BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALONG 26N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL REFLECTIONS AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS OF THE NRN EXTENSION OF 3 TROPICAL WAVES PROGRESSING WNW UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVEL RIDGE. OTHERWISE AN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO STRAITS OF FL AND THEN NW TO NEAR 26N93W. AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK N TONIGHT REACHING CENTRAL FL SUNRISE TUE AND N FL SUNRISE WED AND THEN QUASI-STATIONARY E-W ALONG 31N THU INTO FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN SLY FLOW...15-20 KT...OVER ATLC WATERS WELL TO N OF RIDGE AXIS. GRADIENT WILL ALSO TIGHTEN IN SLY RETURN FLOW WRN GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER NWW3 GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 60W BASED ON COMPARISON TO A SINGLE 12Z ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOYS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 53W...SO EXPECT LITTLE ADJUSTMENT THIS PACKAGE TO GUIDANCE. THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EXTREME WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 15 KT UNDER THE UPPER MEXICAN ANTICYCLONE...LIKELY STRETCHING CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS WELL E OF THE ACTUAL WAVE AXIS. TSTMS THAT FLARED EARLIER ON SAT NIGHT HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT NEW CLUSTERS ARE FLARING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 92W-97W...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO 1ST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W HAS MOVED W AT 15 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS THROUGH AND AREA DOMINATED BY DRY UPPER AIR. THUS CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED. GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS EXPECTED WITH QSCAT AND SSMI INDICATING 15-20KT IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS. I WILL ADJUST NEW CALCULATED WAVE MOTION THROUGH CARIBBEAN ON MARINE GRAPHICS... THUS PSN OF 71W SUNRISE TODAY...77W SUNRISE MON...WITH AXIS MOVING ONSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUE...AND WAVE MOVING THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS...AND NAM...HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH AND AREA OF POSSIBLE GALE WINDS...THE DURATION IS CONSISTENT PAST RUNS...FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...AND WELL BELOW GALE AT SUNSET TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W IS DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE IN THE LATEST QSCAT PASS...BUT A SLIGHT CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT IS NOTED IN SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS AT 23/00Z. MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE W AT 12 KT OVER PAST 96 HOURS. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING NEAR 7N55W ATTM...SO OUR PSN OF WAVE AXIS MAY BE FAIRLY ACCURATE. WILL FORECAST WAVE PSN AT 56W SUNRISE TODAY...61W SUNRISE MON...66W SUNRISE TUE...71W SUNRISE WED...74W SUNRISE THU AND 79W SUNRISE FRI. STILL EXPECT ELY WINDS E OF WAVE IN 15-20 KT RANGE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED AGAIN BY A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A LOW PRES ALONG AXIS NEAR 15N36W ATTM. A COUPLE TENTHS CONVECTION OVER SW QUAD OF LOW ONLY BEGAN TO FORM 6 HOURS AGO...THUS SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT STARTED. GFS HANGS ONTO SURFACE LOW...BUT INITIALIZES IT TOO FAR S AND THEN MOVES IT W ALONG 12N. I WILL MOVE LOW ALONG WAVE AXIS ON A MORE WNW MOTION AT 18 KT WITH WAVE AXIS REACHING 44W SUNRISE MON...49W SUNRISE TUE...55W SUNRISE WED...61W SUNRISE THU AND 67W SUNRISE FRI. WILL FORECAST 20 KT SEAS TO 9 FT NEAR CONSISTENT 1012 MB LOW PRES. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON