000 AGXX40 KNHC 220642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM SAT JUL 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A TUTT EXTENDS THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 35N70W...29N81W... 27N88W...AND 26N102W. A SECOND TUTT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 35N28W...29N43W...18N71W AND 11N80W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N64W WITH A RIDGE SW TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE AT 19N82W TO ANOTHER AT 19N102W. GLOBAL MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DISSIPATING SUN NIGHT AND REPLACED BY A LARGE ANTICYCLONE... THAT SHIFTS NW FROM THE CARIBBEAN...AND CONTINUES MON THROUGH WED. THIS NEW RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STALLING IT OVER THE NRN GULF COASTAL PLAINS SUN AND PUSHING IT N OF THE AREA TUE. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND E ACROSS FL DOMINATING THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE ERN TUTT WILL CONTINUE WITH A LARGE UPPER CYCLONE FORECAST NEAR 25N57W DAY 4 AND 5. OTHERWISE AN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE NRN ATLC WATERS AND ACROSS N FL ALONG 29N INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO STRAITS OF FL AND OVER CENTRAL GULF WATERS AROUND SUNRISE SUN AND CONTINUE INTO MON...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NRN WATERS BY LATE TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN SLY FLOW...15-20 KT...OVER N WATERS WELL TO N OF RIDGE AXIS. GRADIENT ALSO TIGHT BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 15-20 KT EXPECTED. EARLIER NWW3 GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC E OF 60W BASED ON COMPARISON TO 12Z ALTIMETER PASSES AND BUOYS ALONG 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 53W...SO EXPECT LITTLE ADJUSTMENT THIS PACKAGE TO GUIDANCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18 KT UNDER THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE. TSTMS HAVE FLARED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TODAY WITH MOST EFFECTS W OF AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W HAS MOVED W AT 18 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. QSCAT INDICATES 15 IN AGREEMENT WITH GFS. I WILL INCREASE FORWARD SPEED OF WAVE THROUGH CARIBBEAN ON GRAPHICS...THUS PSN OF 75W SUNRISE SUN...82.5W SUNRISE MON...WITH AXIS MOVING ONSHORE CENTRAL AMERICA AT SUNRISE ON TUE. AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING ELY WINDS TO INCREASE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 20-25 KT WITH GALE FORCE BEGINNING 12Z MON NEAR 13N75W AND CONTINUING WELL INTO TUE...AND LIKELY BELOW GALE AT SUNSET TUE. SHOULD MENTION THAT GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE LATEST RUN AND NOGAPS NOW REMAINS BELOW GALE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W MOVING W 12 KT PAST 72 HOURS. FORECAST PSN...57W SUNRISE SUN...62W SUNRISE MON...67W SUNRISE TUE...72W SUNRISE WED...AND 77W SUNRISE THU. MODELS SUGGEST WINDS E OF WAVE IN 15-20 KT RANGE. TROPICAL WAVE IN ERN ATLC STILL GOING THROUGH PSN ADJUSTMENTS BUT EXPECT A FORWARD SPEED OF 20 KT THAT PUTS AXIS ALONG 55W LATE MON...AND THROUGH E CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...GALE WARNING LATE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON