000 AGXX40 KNHC 201154 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM THU JUL 20 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED AT 27N96W...JUST AS THE GFS SUGGESTED YESTERDAY THUS A TENDENCY TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS UPPER SOLUTION ON THIS PACKAGE. THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW WITH AN ATLC UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SW TO THE FL STRAITS BY LATE FRI. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL... EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE SW N ATLC AND INTO THE EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SW ACROSS N FL AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN...THEN WEAKEN ON MON AS ATLC UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK SW ACROSS FL INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLC TUTT EXTENDS SW THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 27N47W... 27N70W...17N78W INTO THE E PAC NEAR 11N90W. CONVECTION IS STILL ENHANCED OVER THE DISCUSSION ALONG 63W N OF 20N...BUT IS DECREASING ATTM AT THE CYCLONE AT 27N70W FILLS. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WSW ACROSS N ATLC WATERS AND N FL AND N GULF WATERS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE FROM 21N72W TO NEAR BERMUDA. MODELS DRIFT THIS TROUGH NW EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING IT AS THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO SE FL BY SUNRISE SAT. BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MAY SEPARATE FROM THE WAVE AND TRACK WNW OVER THE ATLC WATERS 24N65W ON SAT INTO SUN. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W IS MOVING W 18 KT UNDER THE SW EXTENSION OF THE ATLC TUTT. CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED ATTM BUT MAY FLARE LATER TODAY. ELY WINDS 20-30 KT E OF AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER S CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN THE GRADIENT RELAXES. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. QSCAT DEPICTS A 15-20 KT CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT ALONG WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-22N. GFS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THIS WAVE. THE WAVE WILL BE ALONG 77W AT SUNSET SUN WITH GFS INDICATING A LARGE AREA ELY WINDS AT 25-30 KT...WITH A GALE POSSIBLE NEAR THE N COAST OF S AMERICA. THUS THE HEADLINE OF GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE AND SW PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN ZONE FOR SUN AND MON. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W WAS RELOCATED AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 12 KT. THIS DELAYS THE ENTRY INTO TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA TILL SUNSET SAT. MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT INCREASE OF WINDS E OF WAVE...FROM 15 KT TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. .WARNINGS... ATLC...NONE. CARIBBEAN...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MON...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO...NONE. FORECASTER NELSON