000
AGXX40 KNHC 191743
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
141 PM WED JUL 19 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BENIGN CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS CONTINUE OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ESSENTIALLY A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 29N AND 
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF RESULTING IN A FLAT 
GRADIENT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE 
BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH FRI NIGHT
WITH RIDGE REMAINING ALONG 29N. OUTLOOK...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH 
APPROACHES THE NRN GULF LATE SAT AND SETTLES ALONG THE GULF 
COAST THROUGH MON. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND 
STRONG ATLC RIDGE ALLOWS SW WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE 
NE GULF. GFS HINTS AT A DECENT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE MON WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN THE E TO SE 
WINDS TO 15-20 KT.   

SW N ATLC...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE NNEWD TO 
29N64W WITH SCATTERED TSTMS CONCENTRATED WITHIN 120-180 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH S OF 25N. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH 
LATE FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE E AND SE BEHIND THE TROUGH 
AND PICKING UP TO 15 KT OR SO AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD 
WWD. OUTLOOK...TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 75W IN THE FACE OF 
THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE ON SAT. BY SUN AND MON...SW WINDS 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 75W IN A 
TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER SE CONUS AND 
THE ATLC RIDGE.  
 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THIS MORNINGS 1100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT WIND 
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W WITH E TO SE 
WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND LIGHTER E TO 
NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT. AS THE WAVES MOVES WWD...SWATH OF WINDS 
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY THE W CARIBBEAN BY 
FRI WITH WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. OUTLOOK...WAVE MOVES W OF 
THE AREA SAT WITH A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE 
BASIN. ON SUN...BUILDING ATLC RIDGE ALLOWS WINDS TO PICK UP TO
20-25 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH 30 KT ALONG 
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. BY MON A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 
WINDS...25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALES A 
POSSIBILITY NEAR THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE GFS FCST OF 
50 KT 925 MB WINDS AND 35-40 KT 30-M WINDS IN FAVORED FUNNELING 
AREAS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND ARE THE STRONGEST WINDS FCST BY 
THE GFS THUS FAR THIS SUMMER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. THUS WILL 
HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE AND 
SW PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN ZONE FOR SUN AND MON. 
 
.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN AND MON...AMZ084 AND 
AMZ086. 
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER COBB