000
AGXX40 KNHC 190601
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM WED JUL 19 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW TO SE ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING 
OVER W CUBA. THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO RETRACT NW WITH AN ATLC 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING W TO THE FL E COAST NEAR 27N BY THE 
WEEKEND. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING SW FROM 
TROPICAL STORM BERYL...EXTENDS SW OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE SW N 
ATLC AND INTO THE EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
SHOULD BUILD SSW OVER THE EASTERN GULF EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING 
THE TWO UPPER RIDGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A CUT OFF UPPER CYCLONE 
OVER THE E GULF ON SAT IS SUGGESTED BY NOGAPS WHILE THE GFS 
RETRACTS THE GULF RIDGE NW OF THE GULF AND DEEPENS AN UPPER 
CYCLONE OVER THE SW GULF. ANYWAY...EXPECT THE RIDGING TO WEAKEN 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SETTING BROAD UPPER TROUGH ON THE 
WEEKEND. 
 
THE ATLC TUTT EXTENDS SW THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 31N48W... 
26N68W...19N80W AND 14N92W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 65W AND 55W.

ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WSW ACROSS N ATLC WATERS AND N FL AND 
N GULF WATERS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE 
FROM 24N65W TO 29N58W. MODELS DRIFT THIS TROUGH NW EVENTUALLY 
DISSIPATING IT AS THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM 
CENTRAL ATLC TO SE FL BY SUNRISE SAT.
 
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...CONVECTION DECREASING ATTM. WINDS E OF WAVE 15-20 KT 
OVER GULF OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W IS MOVING UNDER UPPER TROUGH WITH TSTMS 
ENHANCED WELL E OF THE WAVE...NEAR 16N68W. ELY WINDS 15-20 KT E 
OF AXIS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT THEN 
GRADIENT RELAXES.
     
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 18 KT WILL 
ENTER TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA SUNSET FRI. MODELS SUGGEST 
SLIGHT INCREASE OF WINDS E OF WAVE...15-20 KT RANGE.  
 
.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON