000
AGXX40 KNHC 180602
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM TUE JUL 18 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO AND S FL TO NW BAHAMAS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN 24 
HOURS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL ANCHOR OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SAT. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS SW JUST OFFSHORE THE E CONUS TO NEAR 29N78W. THE 
GFS CONTINUES THIS TROUGH INTO THE NW WATERS THROUGH WED... THEN 
REINFORCED N OF AREA BY A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WED NIGHT...THEN 
TROUGH SHIFTS E STALLING FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS ON FRI AND 
SAT. ANOTHER AN UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE CUT OFF AND LIES 
N-S ALONG 66W FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR BERMUDA. MODELS 
DRIFT THIS TROUGH NW EVENTUALLY MERGING IT WILL THE REINFORCED 
SHORTWAVE ON FRI. EXPECT A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH 
JUST TO THE S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH SAT.
     
LOW LEVELS...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WSW ACROSS N ATLC WATERS AND N 
FL AND N GULF WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. AS MENTIONED 
ABOVE...A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE ATLC 
WATERS S OF THIS RIDGE SHIFTING N ON THU BUT STILL ALONG 65W 
EFFECTIVELY SPLITTING THE ATLC RIDGE INTO TWO SEPARATE FEATURES 
THROUGH SAT.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W IS FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS E OF WAVE 20-25 KT. LITTLE EFFECT IN 
STRAITS OF FL WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF CYCLONIC WIND 
SHIFT. MOISTURE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DRIES OUT OVER SE GULF ALONG N 
EXTENSION OF THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER E CARIBBEAN ALONG 
65W IS ONLY ENHANCING A FEW TSTMS ATTM AND STRONG UPPER UPPER 
WLY WINDS WILL LIKELY SHEAR CONVECTION TILL WAVE MOVES W OF 78W 
LATE WED. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT E OF AXIS FORECAST BY GFS THROUGH 
FRI AS WAVE CLEARS GULF OF HONDURAS.  
     
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 16 KT WILL 
ENTER TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA LATE FRI. MODELS NOT TOO 
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND EXPECT NE TO E WINDS 15 KT RANGE.  
 
.WARNINGS...
ATLC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER DGS