000
AGXX40 KNHC 150520
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM SAT JUL 15 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MID LEVEL RIDGE FEATURES ARE WEAKENING TONIGHT OVER THE MARINE 
AREA AS SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR 
PRESENCE FELT. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS ALONG 62W N OF 32N WHILE A 
STRONGER ONE WAS DIVING SE ALONG 90W OVER WRN TN. DEEP 
EASTERLIES WERE EVIDENT S OF 25N WITH INVERTED TROUGHS ALONG 45W 
AND A WEAKER ONE ALONG 88W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE ATLC 
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER MID OCEAN WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING WSW 
TO CENTRAL FL. WEAK TRPL WAVES WERE ALONG 34W..60W..AND 76W.

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO WIDEN 
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W AS WEAK SHORTWAVES KEEP MOVING SE INTO THE 
REGION. INVERTED TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG 55W WHILE A STRONG 
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES EXTENDS SE TO FL. ON 
THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N WITH 
MODERATE TRADES S OF 23N E OF 75W AND OVER THE CARIB. GULF WINDS 
MOSTLY LIGHT.

FOR DAY 2 TWO LARGE UPPER RIDGES DOMINATE THE WRN HEMISPHERE 
WITH ONE OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 40W AND THE OTHER OVER THE SRN 
US. IN BETWEEN A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL CONTINUE 
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SE 
OVER THE SE US DAY 2 BUT STAY N OF THE AREA. THE ATLC RIDGE 
WEAKENS W OF 70W BUT MAINTAINS A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE E CARIB 
MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT ELY WINDS E OF 75W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE 
MOSTLY LIGHT.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

WHILE THE TWO LARGE UPPER RIDGES HOLD FIRM..WEAK VORTICITY 
CENTERS MIGRATE NW AND N FROM THE TROPICS THROUGH THE WEAKNESS 
BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH 
BECOMES STATIONARY OFF THE SE COAST DAY 3 BACK ALONG THE N GULF 
COAST. WEAK HIGH PRES PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS. 
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM MID OCEAN TO 27N80W. WINDS 
IN THE CARIB DECREASE SOME DAY 3 WITH 20 KT CONFINED TO BETWEEN 
70W AND 78W.

FOR DAY 4 UPPER RIDGES BEGIN TO SQUEEZE OFF THE WEAKNESS ALONG 
70W AS THE ERN ATLC RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY WWD. ON THE SURFACE THE 
ATLC RIDGE CONFINES ITSELF TO MID OCEAN MAINLY E OF 60W. CARIB 
WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE ELY WHILE ATLC W OF 60W AND GULF REMAIN 
LIGHT.

FOR DAY 5 WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG 
70W..THE OVERALL RIDGE PICTURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES 
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. OVER THE CENTRAL US A FAIRLY STRONG MID 
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE DEEP EASTERLIES REMAIN 
GENERALLY S OF 20N E OF 70W AND S OF 25N W OF 70W. ON THE 
SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE WHILE MAINLY OVER THE MID OCEAN TRIES TO 
DEVELOP A NEW CENTER FURTHER W NEAR 32N68W. ATLC WINDS MOSTLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE. GULF WINDS 
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE SE PORTION DAY 5. 

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER RRG