000
AGXX40 KNHC 121803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 PM WED JUL 12 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

.SYNOPSIS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST FROM A 1030 
MB HIGH NEAR 31N58W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 24N91W CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY WESTWARD IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE UPPER LOW 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE 
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPRESSING SHOWERS 
IN THE WESTERN GULF. FURTHER EAST...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE 
FLORIDA KEYS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N 
OF CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W WITH A 1014MB LOW LOCATED 
NEAR 13N58W IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION AND A DIURNAL TENDENCY TO THE CONVECTION WITH A MAX 
IN THE MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W. DIMINISHING WINDS N OF COLUMBIA ARE 20 
TO 25 KT TODAY...BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 10 FT DUE TO FRESH SWELL.

.FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY W AND 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
STRENGTH. FAIRLY UNIFORM TRADE WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS 
WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF WINDS 15 TO 20 KT E OF A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS S TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF COLUMBIA WILL EASE A BIT...ALLOWING SEAS 
TO DECREASE TO AROUND 8 FT BY SAT. THE LOW E OF THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT WITH 
VERY LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

.WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.
CARIBBEAN...NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL