000
AGXX40 KNHC 060546
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 AM THU JUL 06 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST 
GULF OF MEXICO/STRAITS OF FLORIDA...MOVING WEST. CONVECTION 
PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLC...BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA. MEANWHILE A TUTT EXTENDS FROM 31N 
55W TO THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AT THE 
SURFACE...MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC 
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS...EXTENDING GENERALLY ALONG 
31N. GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW  STALLING AND OPENING UP OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST GULF OVER THROUGH THU...AS A TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE 
EASTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE CAROLINA 
COAST ON SAT... WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS VEERING MORE 
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT THROUGH SAT HOWEVER...AND LEAVING THE 
FRONT TO WEAKEN AND ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON 
SUN. OVER TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...MODERATE EAST FLOW PREVAILS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN...BUOY 42058 IS SHOWING 10 MIN WINDS CLOSE TO GALE 
FORCE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY GALE FORCE GUSTS. THIS HINTS THAT 
THE GALE AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO 16N. EXPECT 
THE STRONG WINDS TO PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SW 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO FRI AS ATLC HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS. LATEST GFS RUN STILL SUPPORTS GALES OFF 
COLOMBIAN COAST INTO FRI MORNING...BUT WEAKENS THE WINDS THROUGH 
THE DAY FRI. WILL HOLD ON TO GALE CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY...BUT 
MAY ADD WORDING BRINGING WINDS/SEAS DOWN BELOW GALE STRENGTH 
THROUGH THE DAY. WEEKEND WILL BRING CONTINUE STRONG EAST WINDS 
AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH...AHEAD OF 
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER GULF OF 
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT 
WINDS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH TO AROUND 25N FRI. 
GFS IS STILL SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN EAST FLOW OVER SOUTH 
CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND...AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES 
THROUGH THE WRN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...AS EXPECTED...GFS HAS 
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE WIND SPEED WITH GENERALLY 15 KT FLOW 
IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND. NO CHANGES IN FORECAST REQUIRED.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W TO 78W TODAY AND 
FRI...AMZ084 AND AMZ086.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN