000
AGXX40 KNHC 050559
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM WED JUL 05 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS N PORTION OF AREA.  UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N80W WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
OVER N BAHAMAS PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SW N 
ATLC WATERS.  MODELS AGREE ON HEALTHY SE FLOW...THEN VEER S AND 
SW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NW CORNER 
OF BASIN.  WELL ANCHORED RIDGE DOESN'T BUDGE TOO MUCH SO FRONT 
STALLS SAT HALFWAY ACROSS BASIN AND DISSIPATES BY SUN.  RIDGE 
REBUILDS SUN FROM 30N65W TO 25N80W.

CARIBBEAN...MAIN FEATURE IS STRENGTH OF WINDS OVER CENTRAL 
AND E CARIBBEAN. WINDS DIMINISH EARLY TODAY BUT FORECAST TO 
INCREASE AS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES AND ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS.  
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DEEP LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL AFFECT 
GRADIENT AS GFS BRINGS IT DOWN TO 1006 MB WHICH SHOULD BRING 
WINDS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE.  GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL MODELS 
BUT NAM AND NOGAPS ARE NOW RAISING THEIR SOLUTION BY SHOWING 30 
KT.  NWW3 SHOWS SEAS OF 15+ FT WHICH LOOK REASONABLE FOR GALE 
FORCE WINDS.  ALTHOUGH DO NOT FEEL TOTALLY CONVINCED IT WILL 
VERIFY...IT IS BOUND TO BE TOO CLOSE NOT TO CALL IT.

GULF OF MEXICO...WEAK TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES OVER E TEXAS 
PRODUCING MODERATE SE WINDS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WRN GULF... 
ESPECIALLY ALONG TEXAS COAST...IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS 
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  WEAK PRES PATTERN OVER E AND CENTRAL 
PORTION WILL UNDERGO LITTLE CHANGE. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES