000 AGXX40 KNHC 030512 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON JUL 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TWO SEPARATE UPPER RIDGES..ONE OVER THE GULF AND THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE THE MAIN FEATURES TONIGHT. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE TWO BETWEEN 60W AND 80W AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING S ALONG 80W INTO THIS WEAKNESS. ON THE SURFACE MAP TONIGHT THE MAIN FEATURE IS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 35N45W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO THE N GULF. A GALE WARNING IN THE S CENTRAL CARIB FOR WINDS ELY 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 15 FT WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z. FOR DAY 1 A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 30N45W EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO WILL SHIFT EWD SLIGHTLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SSE TO THE NRN BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE ON THE SURFACE MAP WITH THE ATLC RIDGE DOMINATING THE SCENE. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WILL MAINTAIN BRISK ELY WINDS OVER THE ERN CARIB DAY 1. FOR DAY 2 UPPER PATTERNS BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW WORKING IT'S WAY NW TO NEAR 32N46W AND THE RIDGE SLIDING EWD. TROUGHING IN THE WEAKNESS SHIFTS NW OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS DAY 2 WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF BREAKS DOWN. ON THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN W OF 80W BUT MAINTAINS A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT E OF 70W S OF 25N. WINDS OVER THE E CARIB BECOME MORE SELY AND REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... DAY 3 FINDS THE WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION MORE. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DROPS SWD OVER THE NE US ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT NW OVER FL DAY 3. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC SHIFTS NNE TO NEAR 33N43W FINALLY ESCAPING THE GRASP OF THE BROAD ATLC UPPER RIDGE. DEEP ELY FLOW DEVELOPS S OF 20N AS A RESULT OF TWO CENTERS BECOMING PROMINENT..ONE NEAR 26N30W AND THE OTHER NEAR 26N62W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN WITH A 1029 MB CENTER NEAR 33N53W AND IT'S AXIS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WILL INCREASE SE WINDS TO 20 KT W OF 70W DAY 3 AS WELL AS E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT E OF 75W OVER THE CARIB. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. FOR DAY 4 TWO MAIN UPPER RIDGE CENTERS REMAIN IN PLACE..ONE OVER THE ERN ATLC AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 30N60W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE US CONTINUES TO MOVE SE WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD CONTINUING BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. A RIDGE OVER S TX STRENGTHENS MAINLY NWD OVER THE PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE RECEDES E OF 80W BUT WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE GRADIENT OVER THE ATLC WITH ELY WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS STRENGTHEN SOME W OF 75W DAY 4 WHILE THE GULF REMAINS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. DAY 5 FINDS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL BETWEEN 70W AND 85W AS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES SE. UPPER RIDGE CENTERS SHIFT NWD TO NEAR 35N50W WITH THE WESTERN CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST WITH SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF 70W INCREASING TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS WSW TO CENTRAL FL DAY 5 THUS KEEPING THE ELY TRADES FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE CARIB. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG