000 AGXX40 KNHC 021718 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 118 PM SUN JUL 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... NORTH END OF TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W ACROSS S FLORIDA BUT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF 76W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 32N WITH MAINLY E/SE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. STRONGEST WINDS (15-20 KT) ARE S OF 25N WITH THE STRONGEST PRES GRADIENT AND SEAS ARE 6-8 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS PSN THROUGH WED THEN SHIFTS S FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND FRI...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER MORE SE/SLY W OF 70W. THE NORTH PART OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THEN SPREADING W OVER THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT/WED. THE WAVE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE SHIFTING RIDGE...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF 15-20 KT WILL REMAIN S OF 24N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GALE WARNING WAS REMOVED FROM FCST LAST NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY STILL MARGINAL AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. 1-MIN WINDS AT BUOY 42058 ARE 31 KT WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST GALE FORCE...SO IT IS PROBABLE THAT WINDS ARE STILL SUSTAINED GALE FORCE CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST. UNFORTUNATELY THE REGION IN QUESTION FELL BETWEEN ADJACENT QUIKSCAT PASSES THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD STAY AT THE CURRENT LEVEL UNTIL MON MORNING WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT...SO WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR TONIGHT. SEAS AT THE BUOY ARE 13 FT BUT HAVE BEEN UP TO 15 FT...AND THIS IS RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NWW3 GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP SEAS TO 15 FT IN E SWELL TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER WIND ZONE TO THE S...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE COMING DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS REALLY INCREASING LATE MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT E/SE WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN E SWELL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WED. THE WAVE ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS...THEN THE CONDITIONS MERGE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED N OF COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY ON WED TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FOR NOW I WILL MENTION GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED E CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF THESE WINDS SPREADING W INTO SW CARIBBEAN. WITH SUCH A STRONG WIND REGIME LASTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 18 FT BY FRI...SO WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE LATEST FORECAST. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE LIES N OF THE AREA WITH E/SE FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE SE GULF AND FAR W GULF ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS/TSTMS BUT ARE LEAVING THE WIND FIELD RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED. WINDS REMAIN E/SE THROUGH WED THEN BECOME MORE SLY OVER THE E PART THU AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE E AND THE RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE ATLC. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FT AS THE RIDGE RETREATS E AND WINDS SETTLE DOWN A TAD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG