000 AGXX40 KNHC 020522 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN JUL 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE WITH TWO CENTERS..ONE OVER THE ERN GULF AND THE OTHER OVER THE MID ATLC NEAR 35N48W TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH E OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 50W WITH A VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 25N45W CAUGHT IN THE UPPER RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE WAS ALONG 30N W TO NE FL TONIGHT WITH TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 49W 69W AND 83W. FOR DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN WITH THE STRONGEST RIDGE CENTER REMAINING OVER THE MID ATLC N OF THE VORTICITY CENTER WHICH REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY. A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE 1028 MB RIDGE AND A 1008 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA THUS A GALE CONDITION WILL REMAIN OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIB ELY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. ATLC MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT AND GULF 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 2 A REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MID ATLC WITH THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING E TO NEAR 36N42W AND THE UPPER LOW TO NEAR 30N42W. WEAK TROUGHING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BETWEEN 65W AND 80W DAY 2 WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME W OF 70W WITH THE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIB ALSO WEAKENING THUS WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BUT REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. REMAINDER OF THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 TWO INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS TAKE PLACE. ONE OVER THE MID ATLC WHERE THE REX BLOCK MODIFIES ITSELF WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER PROMINENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NO RIDGE CENTER IDENTIFIED. THE OTHER DEVELOPMENT IS THE WIDENING TROUGH BETWEEN 65W AND 90W ALLOWING WEAK VORTICITY CENTERS TO DRIFT SWD FROM THE WESTERLIES N OF 35N. ON THE SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLOWLY W OF 70W WHILE THE ATLC RIDGE HOLDS ON ALONG 30N. THUS WINDS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W BECOME MORE SELY AND WINDS OVER THE CARIB W OF 75W DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE SUBTROPICS BECOMES A COMBINATION OF HIGH AND LOW CENTERS. ONE WEAK LOW CENTER IS OVER THE ERN GULF WHILE A WEAK RIDGE LIES N OF PUERTO RICO. A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N45W WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE SE AND E WINDS INCREASE OVER THE ERN CARIB DAY 4 TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH ELY WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. GULF REMAINS MOSTLY LIGHT. ON DAY 5 A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PRESSURE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE OVER THE NE US. RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS TO 60W AND OVER THE ERN ATLC. WEAK UPPER LOWS OVER THE MID ATLC NEAR 30N45W AND 28N60W. ON THE SURFACE STRONG ELY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE E CENTRAL CARIB DAY 5. GFS MODEL SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT AND NWW3 FORECAST SEA HEIGHTS TO 15 TO 17 FT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. GULF REMAINS QUIET AND THE ATLC N OF 24N ALSO QUIET WITH SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG