000 AGXX40 KNHC 010605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM SAT JUL 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THIS EVENING'S 2322Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED A DROP OFF IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES OVER THE GALE WARNING AREA. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH THE QUIKSCAT SWATH INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE DID NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE THE FLOW OVER THE REGION. STRONGEST SEEMS TO BE E OF THE WAVE...E OF 75W...IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. STILL MAY BE A SMALL AREA...PARTICULARLY JUST N OF THE COLUMBIAN COAST...OF GALE FORCE SO WILL KEEP THE WARNING OUT FOR 24 MORE HOURS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE W. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS OR SEAS...AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON MON. AFTERWARDS...NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY NEAR 44W IS FORECAST BY THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA TUE. MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-25 KT AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 10 FT OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN BY TUE AFTERNOON...SPREADING W TO 74W WED. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A LONG RANGE REACH...THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS. SW N ATLC... NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH SUN. PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE EXTREME N PART OF THE AREA...MODERATE ELY FLOW...10-15 KT...OVER THE MID PORTION...AND STRONG ELY FLOW TO 20 KT OVER THE S WATERS AND ADJACENT BAHAMA ISLANDS. WAVE MOVES OVER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN WHICH SHOULD RELAX CONDITIONS BY MON AFTERNOON. EARLIER MENTIONED NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EVENT SHOULD MOVE OVER SE PORTION BY TUE NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS. GULF OF MEXICO... LESS SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN THIS AFTERNOON...HENCE...A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SMALL AREA CONFINED TO THE YUCATAN COAST. MODELS INDICATE CUT-OFF LOW OVER MEXICO...TRIGGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL FILL AND DRIFT N OF AREA SUN. SO...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL FLARES OVER THE BAY AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE REGION AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRESSURES ARE INCREASING. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH SUN WITH RIDGE REESTABLISHING OVER NORTHERN AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON...INCREASING WINDS SLIGHTLY 10 TO 15 KT...MAINLY S OF 25N. STILL KEEPING IN POSSIBLE 20 KT SUSTAINED OVER SE PORTION SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH APPROACH OF TROPICAL WAVE. WITH THAT...SEAS COULD QUICKLY BUILD TO A ROUGH 8 FT IN THAT AREA...BUT DROP JUST A FAST MON THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER ROBERTS