000
AGXX40 KNHC 301732
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
135 PM FRI JUN 30 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT OVERPASS STILL SHOWED WINDS VERY NEAR OR 
JUST AT GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EVEN THOUGH THE 
PRES GRADIENT MAY BE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BY AN APPROACHING 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W. AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE W 
CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT MAY ACTUALLY TIGHTEN A LITTLE BIT. 
AS SUCH...25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS TO 13 OR 14 FT STILL LOOKS 
REASONABLE AND A GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.  
THEREAFTER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS 
OR SEAS.  THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY 
NEAR 40W WHICH IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 
TUE TIMEFRAME.  WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT ALWAYS GREAT AT 
PREDICTING THE WINDFIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE AT DAY 5...THE 
GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SO I'VE OPTED TO WALK THE 
FORECAST UP TO 20-25 KT.  IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN 
TIMING...WILL COVER THE ENTIRE ZONE WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  ONLY 
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS SWELLS ORGINATING FROM THE PROLONGED 
HIGH WIND EVENT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  SHIP 
REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPORADIC AND ITS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT THE 
SEASTATE IS AT THE PRESENT.  THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY 
STAYS IN LINE WITH THE NWW3 OUTPUT.  

SW N ATLC...
THE BASIC SETUP THROUGH SUN WILL BE THE N EXTENT OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE MOVING ON THE SOUTHSIDE OF THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH 
WILL BE BASICALLY STATIONARY ALONG THE N BOUNDARY OF THE ZONE.  
THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE EXTREME N PART OF THE 
AREA...MODERATE ELY FLOW OF 10-15 OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE 
ZONE...AND STRONG ELY FLOW AROUND 20 KT OVER THE S WATERS 
INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INLAND OVER 
FLORIDA SUN PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS 
MON.  HOWEVER...NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE SE PART OF THE ZONE TUE 
WITH THE ENTIRE PATTERN REPEATING ITSELF. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE N EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO PRODUCING A LARGE AREA 
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF ZONE. LATEST 
QUIKSCAT SHOWS NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW BUT THIS AREA OF 
DISTURBED WEATHER WILL TEMPORARILY KICK UP THE WINDS TO 20 KT 
TODAY. SYSTEM SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND 
OVER MEXICO TONIGHT.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED 
TO SUSTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. RIDGE SHOULD BUILD 
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS SUN AND MON WITH SLIGHT 
STRENGTHENING...10 TO 15 KT...OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS COULD 
INCREASE LOCALLY TO 20 KT OVER THE SE GULF ZONE INCLUDING THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SAT AND SUN COURTESY OF A TROPICAL WAVE.  
THIS COULD MAKE FOR SOME TRICKY NAVIGATION OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FL AS THE ELY FLOW BUCKS THE GULF STREAM.  EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD 
TO 8 FT IN SMALL PERIOD WAVES.  CONDTIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE MON THROUGH WED AS PRES GRADIENT AGAIN RELAXES. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N E OF 77W...AMZ084.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RHOME