000 AGXX40 KNHC 291849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM THU JUN 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO MON WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS MAINLY OVER S WATERS S OF 25N. STRONGER ELY WINDS MAY IMPACT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SE GULF LATE SUN AND MON BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUN. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 8 FT OVER FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SUN OR MON AS STRONGER ELY FLOW BUCKS THE GULF STREAM. SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE WAVE. SINCE FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT ARE UNCERTAIN...MARINE INTEREST IN OR AROUND THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SW N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO NORTHERN FLORIDA SAT AND N OF AREA BY SUN. THIS SETUP WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE EXTREME N PORTION OF THE AREA...MODERATE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE AREA...AND STRONG WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE S WATERS. WORSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL SKIRT THE S PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE S WATERS EVENTUALLY REACHING 25 KT BY SAT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER THE BAHAMAS SUN THEN W OF AREA MON. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE WAVE MAY MAKE BOATING A LITTLE TRICKY OVER THE BAHAMAS LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING NEAR 1100 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED BARBS INDICATING GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH...A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED IN THE MORNING PACKAGE. SINCE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. THE WINDS UNDER THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY EXHIBIT A DIURNAL PULSE WITH A MAXIMUM AT NIGHT AND A MINIMUM DURING THE DAY. SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT AND LIKELY VERY CONFUSING TO THE USER TO FORECAST THIS...I'VE OPTED JUST TO SHOW GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS WILL DIP BELOW GALE FORCE AT TIMES BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN. BOTTOM LINE...STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ELSEWHERE...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MAKE QUICK WESTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS EFFECTIVELY LIGHTING UP MOST OF THE AREA WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH SAT AS A PROLONGED HIGH WIND EVENT SETS THE STAGE FOR SWELL DEVELOPMENT. THE GOING FORECAST INDICATES A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE SWELLS GIVEN THE PULSING OF THE WIND MAXIMUM DESCRIBED ABOVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SWELLS COULD EXCEED THE FORECAST BY SEVERAL FEET BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND DONE. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND ALL ZONES BEGINNING MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME