000 AGXX40 KNHC 280703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM WED JUN 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES WILL MAINTAIN RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND SEAS RUNNING 1-3 FT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TODAY. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A RESIDUAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE SW TO 26N93W. HOWEVER ...NO MAJOR IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WINDS AND SEAS HERE AS TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE E AND CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF WED NIGHT...BUT SEAS SHOULD NOT INCREASE TO NO MORE THAN 5 FT OVER THAT PART OF THE GULF. OVER REMAINDER OF GULF...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E-SE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD MAX OUT AT 4 FT AS INDICATED BY NWW3 GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... RIDGE HAS RE-TAKEN CONTROL OF THE W PORTION OF THE AREA...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N69W SW THROUGH 28N74W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED OVER NW PART IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRES. S-SW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED N OF 28N W OF 75W. THESE SEAS ARE CLOSER TO NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES AS OPPOSE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE NWW3 VALUES WHERE RUNNING ABOUT 2 FT TOO LOW FOR THIS PART OF THE SW N ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TO N FLORIDA FRI AND SAT AND TO NEAR 31N LATE SAT AND SUN. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 55W IS MOVING W 15-20 KT. GFS AND CANADIAN BEST WITH TRACKING WIND FILED ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE INTO THE SE PART S OF ABOUT 24N E OF 74W BEGINNING THU NIGHT SHIFTING TO S OF 26N W OF 69W BY SUN. FOR NOW WILL DISCOUNT LOW PRES THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL SPINS UP SAT AND SUN ALONG 73W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS IN ANY EVENT...THE WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY AXING OUT TO 8 OR 9 FT PER NWW3 VALUES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED HERE AS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS LAST 2 DAYS. OF NOTE...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2300Z LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF NE 25 KT WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SOME 30 KT WIND SPEEDS MIXED IN MOSTLY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST OF SIMILAR WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT THROUGH THU MORNING THEN DECREASE TO WINDS 25 KT THROUGH THU NIGHT FOLLOWING GFS 10M WIND FIELD. BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELES SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS SAT AND SUN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO STRENGTHENING ATLC HIGH PRES. ALSO...WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALREADY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY PASSING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PRESENTLY ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT INTO THU AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 41W IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. THIS WAVES WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND W CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS TO THE N. AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE IN SEAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI...SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD TO THE 10-14 FT RANGE SAT AND SUN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE