000 AGXX40 KNHC 271749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 149 PM TUE JUN 27 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED N INTO NORTH CAROLINA WITH A LOW/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND S/SE WINDS TO 40 KT OR SO (BASED ON EXTRAPOLATED RECON WINDS). ENTIRE SYSTEM IS N OF THE AREA HOWEVER...AND WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO DIE DOWN AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FL...LIFTING N TO CENTRAL FL WED THROUGH THU...THEN ALONG 31N FRI THROUGH SUN. NWW3 STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS PICKING UP ON SWELL OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST...WITH BUOY 41010 REPORTING 6 FT...ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA BEGINNING THU WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD NW THROUGH SUN AS THE WAVE AMPLIFIES A BIT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GALE WARNING WAS DROPPED OVERNIGHT BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST EVENING THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS TO 30 KT. A PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED A BIT...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 34 KT NEAR 12N76W. I AM RELUCTANT TO PUT UP A WARNING AGAIN IN ORDER TO JUMP UP AND DOWN FROM FORECAST TO FORECAST... BUT I ALREADY ADDED A STATEMENT OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING PACKAGE AND WILL KEEP THIS WORDING THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BE HELD UP TO 14 FT SINCE SWELLS WILL BE A CONCERN EVEN THOUGH THE GALE IS MARGINAL. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT THEN CROSS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT E OF THE AXIS. THE GFS IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INCREASING WINDS TO 25 KT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT THEY DO EVENTUALLY INCREASE TO THAT LEVEL BY FRI AS A SECOND WAVE CATCHES UP TO THE MAIN ONE. INTERESTING SCENARIO SETS UP SAT AND SUN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES BY AND ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS AT 30 METERS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...STRONGER THAN WAS SHOWN FOR THE CURRENT EVENT. A SPAGHETTI PLOT OF THE PRES FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ALL INDICATE SIMILAR GRADIENTS WITH THE 1016 MB ISOBAR DRAPED ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE 1012 MB ISOBAR EXTENDING FROM CARACAS VENEZUELA TO HONDURAS. THEIR PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IS THE LOCATION AND PRES OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW OVER COLOMBIA. FOR NOW I WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONED GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT WILL MENTION IN GUSTS AGAIN BECAUSE SOMETIMES THE GFS PULLS BACK LEADING UP TO EXPECTED EVENTS...AND I DON'T WANT TO FALL INTO THE TRAP JUST YET. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO 25N90W AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS W FROM THE ATLC. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE AREA. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF 20 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO HEATING EFFECTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT OVERALL ELY 10-15 KT LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE N PART WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE...BUT THEY TOO WILL BECOME MORE ELY OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG