000 AGXX40 KNHC 270659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM TUE JUN 27 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE... SE-S FLOW CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 41010 AND OTHER BUOYS N OF THE AREA WITH SEAS STILL IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. 00Z NWW3 SEA STATE GUIDANCE DID A LITTLE BETTER WITH SEAS IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER IT IS STILL ABOUT 2 FT TOO LOW NEAR 28N. WEAK ATLC RIDGE OVER S FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED THU AND TO N FLORIDA FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL CONTROL WINDS REGIME AND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO POSSIBLY POSE SOME ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS IS A RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL SE OF THE AREA. LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SUGGESTED THAT A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LOCATED ON THE WAVE NEAR 11N46W. LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES WAVE PASSING THROUGH E CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT WITH ITS NRN EXTENT PROTRUDING INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ENHANCING SE WINDS S OF ABOUT 24N E OF 71W BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND THROUGH SAT. SEAS IN AN E SWELL WILL BUILD HERE AS WELL...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 OR 9 FT PER NWW3 VALUES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP GALE WARNING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR THIS PACKAGE. WILL MENTION NE 25-30 KT INSTEAD. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2326 LAST NIGHT REVEALED WINDS IN THIS RANGE PRIMARILY WITHIN ABOUT 120-150 NM NW OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GFS 10M WINDS SHOW MAX OF 30 KT THROUGH SAT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND 30M WINDS SHOW MOSTLY 30 KT WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF WINDS 30-35 KT. I DO NOT THINK THE 35 KT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ...AND GIVEN THAT PRES GRADIENT CREATE BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TRADES TO REACH GALE FORCE ON THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. DO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LARGE SEAS...UP TO 15 FT...DUE TO LONG DURATION OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER LARGE FETCH AREA. IN ADDITION...SHIP C6QK OBSERVED 16 FT SEAS NEAR 06Z THIS MORNING AND 13 FT AT 00Z LAST NIGHT. THESE REPORTS ALL ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 4-5 FT. WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH FOR THIS PACKAGE. RIDGE MAY STRENGTHEN SOME ON SAT. THIS MAY PROMPT ISSUANCE OF GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN SINCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AT SPEEDS OF 25-30 KT. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF LOW PRES BECOMES PRONOUNCED ON THE WAVE AXIS SINCE A PRETTY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX IS ALREADY BEING NOTED AS STATED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO TO 11 FT IN E SWELL E OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRI/SAT...AND BUILD UP TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES WILL MAINTAIN RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND SEAS RUNNING 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL TROUGHING EXTENDS INTO THE MIDDLE GULF FROM BROAD LOW PRES PRES OVER N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WINDS AND SEAS HERE AS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK BEFORE WASHING OUT ON WED. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BECOME SETTLED OVER THE E GULF THROUGH SAT. WINDS MAY AT TIMES REACH 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...BUT SEAS SHOULD NOT INCREASE TO NO MORE THAN 5 OR 6 FT THERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 270659 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM TUE JUN 27 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE... SE-S FLOW CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 41010 AND OTHER BUOYS N OF THE AREA WITH SEAS STILL IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. 00Z NWW3 SEA STATE GUIDANCE DID A LITTLE BETTER WITH SEAS IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER IT IS STILL ABOUT 2 FT TOO LOW NEAR 28N. WEAK ATLC RIDGE OVER S FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED THU AND TO N FLORIDA FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL CONTROL WINDS REGIME AND SPEEDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO POSSIBLY POSE SOME ISSUES WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS IS A RATHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL SE OF THE AREA. LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SUGGESTED THAT A LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LOCATED ON THE WAVE NEAR 11N46W. LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES WAVE PASSING THROUGH E CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SAT WITH ITS NRN EXTENT PROTRUDING INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ENHANCING SE WINDS S OF ABOUT 24N E OF 71W BEGINNING LATE THU NIGHT AND THROUGH SAT. SEAS IN AN E SWELL WILL BUILD HERE AS WELL...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 OR 9 FT PER NWW3 VALUES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLC THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP GALE WARNING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR THIS PACKAGE. WILL MENTION NE 25-30 KT INSTEAD. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2326 LAST NIGHT REVEALED WINDS IN THIS RANGE PRIMARILY WITHIN ABOUT 120-150 NM NW OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GFS 10M WINDS SHOW MAX OF 30 KT THROUGH SAT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND 30M WINDS SHOW MOSTLY 30 KT WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF WINDS 30-35 KT. I DO NOT THINK THE 35 KT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ...AND GIVEN THAT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TRADES TO REACH GALE FORCE ON THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. DO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LARGE SEAS...UP TO 15 FT...DUE TO LONG DURATION OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER LARGE FETCH AREA. IN ADDITION...SHIP C6QK OBSERVED 16 FT SEAS NEAR 06Z THIS MORNING AND 13 FT AT 00Z LAST NIGHT. THESE REPORTS ALL ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 4-5 FT. WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH FOR THIS PACKAGE. RIDGE MAY STRENGTHEN SOME ON SAT. THIS MAY PROMPT ISSUANCE OF GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN SINCE WINDS ARE ALREADY AT SPEEDS OF 25-30 KT. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IF LOW PRES BECOMES PRONOUNCED ON THE WAVE AXIS SINCE A PRETTY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX IS ALREADY BEING NOTED AS STATED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO TO 11 FT IN E SWELL E OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRI/SAT...AND BUILD UP TO 10 FT OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES WILL MAINTAIN RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND SEAS RUNNING 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL TROUGHING EXTENDS INTO THE MIDDLE GULF FROM BROAD LOW PRES PRES OVER N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON WINDS AND SEAS HERE AS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEAK BEFORE WASHING OUT ON WED. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BECOME SETTLED OVER THE E GULF THROUGH SAT. WINDS MAY AT TIMES REACH 15-20 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...BUT SEAS SHOULD NOT INCREASE TO NO MORE THAN 5 OR 6 FT THERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE