000 AGXX40 KNHC 261806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM MON JUN 26 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS LOCATED E OF TALLAHASSEE FL WITH BROAD AND STRENGTHENING S/SE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST. MAX WINDS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING NEAR 20 KT AT BUOY 41010...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE GFS WIND FIELD. NWW3 SEAS ARE ABOUT 1-2 FT TOO LOW BECAUSE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE IN THE SAME AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND SHIFT MORE TO THE SW THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS W TOWARDS THE LOW...AND THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH TUE MORNING WHEN THE LOW LIFTS NE. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BUILD TO 9 FT ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. BEGINNING TUE...A RIDGE BUILDS FROM BERMUDA SW TO THE STRAITS OF FL THEN LIFTS SLOWLY N TO ABOUT 29N THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE NRN SEGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE AXIS S OF 24N...SPREADING W INTO THE SRN BAHAMAS ON SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PRIMARY CONCERN IS GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 1100 UTC ALREADY SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT N OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA...WITH THE 20+ KT FIELD EXTENDING FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING W...AND COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA...THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION...SEAS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 10 FT AT BUOY 42058 N OF THE HIGHEST WIND ZONE (WHICH IS 1-2 FT ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE...SO I WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP SEAS UP TO 10-15 FT IN THE GALE WARNING AREA. 8-10 FT SWELLS FROM THESE GENERATED SEAS WILL MOVE W TOWARDS THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE TUE/WED. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA THU AND FRI AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT BUT THEN SAT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR GALES. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT E OF THE AXIS AND SPREADING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT IN E SWELL E OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRI/SAT...AND WILL BUILD TO 8/9 FT OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE. GULF OF MEXICO... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS RUNNING 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE SW TO 25N90W BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUE NIGHT. ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE E OVER THE SRN PART OF THE GULF AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN WED THROUGH SAT...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WINDS TO REACH 20 KT OVER THE SW GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG