000 AGXX40 KNHC 251712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 110 PM SUN JUN 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA AND FAR W ATLC WATERS. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DIFFERENT CENTERS OF CIRCULATION AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS THE SURFACE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 28N80W MOVING NNW 5 TO 10 KT. VARIOUS MODEL FIELDS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON A SURFACE CIRCULATION MOVING W ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THEN N TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE/ALABAMA REGION TOWARDS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS TRACK A VORT MAX AT 850 MB N/NW ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. 12Z NHC GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND NONE OF THEM OPT FOR A TRACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS IS SEEN IN THE MODEL FIELDS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST WILL FOCUS ON A LOW NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL MOVING N TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE MON MORNING THEN IN THE DIRECTION OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...RECOGNIZING THAT A TROUGH WILL LIKELY STILL EXTEND S/SW ACROSS FLORIDA. THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD STILL LIES WELL E OF THE LOW BUT MANY OF THE MODELS ARE NOW HINTING THAT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN CLOSE TO THE FL COAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES N. NHC THINKING IS ALSO THAT CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT ON MON. WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NW PART FOR MON AS THE LOW POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS THE AREA. AFTER MON...RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE TRANQUIL. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD W ON MON AS W ATLC LOW LIFTS N...AND THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN REALLY START CRANKING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N... HIGHEST JUST N OF COLOMBIA. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST SINCE THE GFS STRENGTHENS WINDS TO 30 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...AND IT USUALLY UNDERDOES BOTH THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WIND FIELD IN THESE SITUATIONS (AS AN EXAMPLE IT IS ALREADY 5 KT TOO LOW AT BUOY 42058). WILL MENTION GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST AND THEN LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS RE-ASSESS POTENTIAL. HIGHEST SEAS WILL ALSO BE 13 FT NEAR THE COAST BY TUE. NEXT CONCERN IS A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED MOVING W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY FRI. WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS GFS WINDS BUT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT 5-10 KT WIND FIELD IS BEING INFLUENCED BY LOW PRES ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH LATE TUE...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. A RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE GULF...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG