000 AGXX40 KNHC 250616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM SUN JUN 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR THE N BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT WEST OVER FLORIDA TODAY. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED AND WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WILL HANG ONTO ENHANCED SLY FLOW TO 20 KT THROUGH MON AS THE LOW MAKES SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS AREA MON FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN LIFTS N EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AND N OF AREA THU. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AN ELONGATED TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT IN TERMS OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ELECTING RATHER TO SPREAD OUT THE ENERGY THROUGH SEVERAL WEAK LOWS RATHER THAN ONE STRONGER LOW. CONVERSELY...THE USUALLY AGRESSIVE CMC CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG LOW FORMING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NOGAPS STILL INDICATES LOW DEVELOPMENT BUT IS SLOWER AND FURTHER N THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MEANWHILE...THE UKMET AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW NO LOW DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN PLETHORA OF SOLUTIONS...WISEST CHOICE IS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WHICH IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ASSUMES A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH FROM ROUGHLY HISPANIOLA NEWD TO AROUND 31N55W THROUGH TUE. THE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NW WED AND THU. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY AT THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH ELY TRADES CONTINUING AND STRENGTHEN BEGINNING SUN. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT WITH 9-10 FT SWELL SPREADING W TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS COULD MAKE THE TRIP TO/FROM THE PANAMA CANAL RATHER BUMPY BEGINNING MON. GULF OF MEXICO... AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW ACROSS FLORIDA TODAY BUT DO LITTLE MORE THAN ALTER THE WIND DIRECTION. A FLAT PRES GRADIENT W OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE WITH 1-2 FT SEAS. THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS FLORIDA WED AND THU SUPPORTING STRONGER ELY FLOW OVER THE S PART OF AREA. EVEN STILL...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS MAXING OUT AROUND 4 FT S WATERS ONLY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME