000 AGXX40 KNHC 241744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM SAT JUN 24 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 70 NM NNE OF THE ABACOS IN THE BAHAMAS WITH A CIRCULATION THAT APPEARS TO BE BECOMING A LITTLE ELONGATED AS A TROUGH SWINGS S FROM THE LOW TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND...ESPECIALLY SINCE CONVECTION IS MEAGER AND DISPLACED WELL E OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL NE OF THE CENTER MOSTLY IN GRADIENT FLOW ADJACENT TO THE BERMUDA HIGH. THE E/SE FETCH IN THAT FLOW HAS BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SWELL... EXEMPLIFIED BY A REPORT OF 8 FT AT BUOY 41002 JUST N OF THE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SEAS ARE NEAR 9 FT...ABOUT 2-3 FT LOWER THAN THE NWW3 GUIDANCE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY W/NW ABOUT 5-10 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE NHC BETA ADVECTION MODELS (MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRACKING A CENTER)...AND THIS WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM BY CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON THEN INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA OR SRN GEORGIA SUN NIGHT OR MON DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD TO THE E...OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE...LIKELY DYING DOWN WHEN THE LOW MOVES INLAND ON MON. WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH HIGHER WINDS/SEAS NEAR SCATTERED TSTMS. OTHER CONCERN IS AN AREA OF LOW PRES SEVERAL MODELS SPIN UP NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN HAVE ALL BEEN ADVERTISING QUICK AND STRONG DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW THAT WILL MOVE GENERALLY N/NE OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES. THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...BUT NOW SUPPORTS SPURIOUS LOW SPIN-UPS OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. WISEST CHOICE AT THE MOMENT IS TO GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS WHICH CARRIES A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NE TO 28N55W THROUGH TUE...THEN MOVES THE BOUNDARY NW WED AND THU. MEDIUM-RANGE COORDINATION BETWEEN NHC/HPC ALSO SUPPORTS THIS MORE BENIGN SOLUTION. CAN'T RULE OUT POSSIBLE LOWS ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT THE TROUGH ITSELF SHOULD BE THE MAJOR PLAYER. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NO MAJOR SURPRISES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELY TRADES CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN BEGINNING SUN. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT WITH 9-10 FT SWELL SPREADING W TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MID-WEEK. GULF OF MEXICO... THERE IS EVEN LESS GOING ON OVER THE GULF. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL REGIONAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING 1 OR 2 FT AND I WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE THE NORM (OR EVEN CALMER) UNTIL STRONGER ELY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED S OF THE RIDGE WED AND THU. AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW ACROSS N FLORIDA...SO EXCEPT FOR BACKING THE WINDS FROM NW/N TO W/SW OVER THE E GULF...IT SHOULD DO LITTLE TO AFFECT THE SEA CONDITIONS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG