000
AGXX40 KNHC 240616
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
215 AM SAT JUN 24 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF 
WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE 
THE FATE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC CURRENTLY IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS BRING THE 
SYSTEM NW CROSSING FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SUN REACHING THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE MON THEN MERGING WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE 
SE UNITED STATES TUE.  STILL...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE 
LITTLE EFFECT ON GULF ZONES AS AREA WILL REMAIN ON WEAK SIDE 
WITH LITTLE PRES GRADIENT. WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE CHANGES BUT 
GOING FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES 
EXPECTED. SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 3 FT OR LESS ENTIRE PERIOD. 

SW N ATLC...
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED LOW PRES DID IN FACT FORM EARLY FRI MORNING 
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS.  THE LOW LIES ALONG A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 31N76W.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
RATHER ANEMIC SYSTEM IN TERMS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO SIGNS 
OF ORGANIZATION.  THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD REMAINS LOCATED N AND 
E OF THE LOW AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 20-25 
KT RANGE OVER THE EXTREME NE PART OF THE ZONE. WINDS ARE MUCH 
LIGHTER ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF THE LOW WHERE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WERE SEEN IN AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT. INHERITED 
FORECAST LOOKS QUITE GOOD AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS ARE EXPECTED.  
DESPITE THE LACK OR CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION WITH LOW PRES 
NEAR THE BAHAMAS...STILL MUCH TO EARLY TO BEGIN STEPPING THAT 
SYSTEM DOWN.  WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY UNTIL A CLEARER TREND IS 
ESTABLISHED.  MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT ON TRACKING THE 
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL TO N FLORIDA LATE SAT AND SUN EXITING THE 
AREA BY MON.  A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MON 
THROUGH WED BUT MAY BE DAMPENED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH OR LOW 
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON.  GLOBAL MODELS 
HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THREE OF THE 
MODELS (GFS...CMC...AND NOGAPS) SHOWING A RATHER STRONG AREA OF 
LOW PRES FORMING.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM E OF AREA BUT 
THEN MOVE TOWARD THE NW POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE NE PORTION OF THE 
SW N ATLC ZONE WED.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF SUCH A SYSTEM AT DAY 
5...I WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW BUT MARINE INTERESTS OVER THE SW 
N ATLC SHOULD MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO 
CHANGE. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
STEADY TRADES REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 
FEW CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20-25 KT ELY 
WINDS CURRENTLY LIE GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. 
WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEAKEN COURTESY OF THE 
LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS BUT THEN RE-STRENGTHEN MON THROUGH WED AS 
THE ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...THIS 
SCENARIO IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW PRES FORMS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND THAT FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE 
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER (15-20 KT) 
EASTERLIES THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE AND WED 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RHOME