000 AGXX40 KNHC 231713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM FRI JUN 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES HAS FORMED THIS MORNING NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W AND ALONG A TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM E CUBA TO 31N76W. THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD IS LOCATED N AND E OF THE LOW...AND A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED HIGHEST NON-CONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITHIN ABOUT 420 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS SW OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME ELY SWELL OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA THAT IS NOT BEING PICKED UP BY THE NWW3. SEAS AT BUOY 41010 HAVE BEEN RUNNING 6 FT ALL MORNING WHILE THE NWW3 ONLY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF 4 FT. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BETTER CHANCE NOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRES COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO...AND MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY DRIFTS THE SYSTEM WNW TOWARDS THE FLORIDA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY MOVING INLAND SUN OR MON. I WILL INCREASE WINDS AROUND THE LOW TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MENTION POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT I WOULD RATHER SEE A MORE COHERENT/STRONGER WIND FIELD IN THE MODEL BEFORE GOING HIGHER THAN THAT. A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION MON THROUGH WED...BUT IS BEING BURDENED BY A TROUGH FORECAST TO LIE MAINLY E OF 70W. THE GFS QUICKLY DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH WITHIN 24 HRS THEN INTENSIFIES IT TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NE...BUT THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STEADY TRADES REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FEW CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20-25 KT ELY WINDS CURRENTLY LIE S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AND THIS AREA MAY EXPAND AND/OR STRENGTHEN BY TUE OR WED AS THE ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS OVER THE W ATLC IN THE COMING DAYS...AND THAT FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER (15-20 KT) EASTERLIES THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS/SEAS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE N GULF COAST AND STALL ON SAT...LEADING TO A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE FATE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BRINGS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE N/CNTRL FLORIDA E COAST BY SUN THEN TAKES IT ON A NW TRACK TOWARDS GEORGIA. IF THIS SOLUTION ARISES...THEN THERE WOULD BE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. WILL MONITOR FOR FUTURE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG