000 AGXX40 KNHC 230529 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM FRI JUN 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND SAT AS A SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRES MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION THAN YESTERDAY SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. A MODEL CONSENSUS STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST BET WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE TROUGH...AND A WEAK LOW EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE N BAHAMAS...WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST REACHING FLORIDA IN THE SAT/SUN TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ROUGHLY A HALF A DAY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S FORECAST TIMING. THE IMPACT TO THE GULF ZONES STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL WITH LITTLE OR NO PRES GRADIENT TO THE WEST OF THE TROF/LOW. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FORECAST OF MODERATE ELY FLOW TODAY THEN TREND MORE TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS WIND REGIME...EXPECT SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 2-4 FT TODAY SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO 1-2 FT BY THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... MAIN FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEWD TO A POSITION HALFWAY IN BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SE U.S. COAST. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION BUT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRES WILL FORM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS STOPS THERE WITH MUCH DISCREPANCY IN THE TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION OF LOW PRES. MOREOVER...THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IS MUCH DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS YIELDING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FIELD. GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ULTIMATELY EQUATES TO DRIFTING THE TROUGH WESTWARD REACHING FLORIDA IN THE SAT/SUN TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ROUGHLY 1/2 TO 1 DAY SLOWER THAN THOUGHT YESTERDAY. BEST BET ON POSSIBLE FORMATION AREA OF LOW PRES IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE N BAHAMAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS STILL EXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE PRES GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AND MARINE INTERESTS OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CHECK BACK OFTEN FOR UPDATES. REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRESENT A MARINE HAZARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG TRADES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE S AND SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MODERATE TRADES OF 10-15 KT OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS N/S DELINEATION IN WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED DURING THE WEEKEND. VIGOROUS WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS NOW ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE IT IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A PLAYER IN THE FIRST PERIOD ONLY AS IT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS DEMONSTRATES A HIGH AMPLITUDE SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HAS BECOME A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT SHOWS A COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED 20 KT BARBS SO WILL KEEP TRADES TO 20 KT E OF WAVE AXIS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WINDS WITH THE WAVE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN SUN AS THE W EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS WEAKENED BY POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER SW N ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE...NORMAL TRADES OF 15 TO 20 SOUTHERN PART AND 10 TO 15 KT N PART EXPECT FOR ENTIRE FORECAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME