000 AGXX40 KNHC 211913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM WED JUN 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT S TO ALONG 28N FRI AND TO 26N BY SUN. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS. WEAK PRES WILL HOLD THROUGH MON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES OVER THE NE PART DURING THE WEEKEND. NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD EXCEPT FOR EXTREME W PORTION S OF 28N WHERE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE SEAS ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN NWW3 VALUES. I BELIEVE THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT. SW N ATLC... MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A NE-SW TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NNE TO 30N70W DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 71W-75W AND ALSO N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SMALL MID-LEVEL VORTMAX IS NOTED IN THE CONVECTION NEAR 26N74W. MODELS STILL TEND TO DRIFT THIS TROUGH IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARDS FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL MODELS EXCEPT GFS SHOW SOME TYPE OF LOW FEATURE EVOLVING FROM THE TROUGH AND APPROACHING FLORIDA SAT AND SUN WITH THE CANADIAN AND NAM SIMILAR IN SHOWING STRONGER WINDS WITH THE LOW. THINK BEST SOLUTION FOR NOW IS TO KEEP FEATURE AS TROUGH THROUGH THIS FORECAST BASED ON THE FACT THAT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT INDICATE ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE RELATED TO TROUGH AND SURROUNDING CONDITIONS REVEAL THAT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH...AND UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR IS IMPINGING ON TROUGH. I DON'T EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CHANGE SOON. RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA THU THROUGH SUN. SHIP AND BUOY DATA THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM AROUND 10 UTC THIS MORNING HAVE ALL BEEN SHOWING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (10-15 KT) ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...AND ALSO THE EXTREME SE PART WHERE WINDS ARE ELY TO 20 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG CARIBBEAN WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 78W S OF 19N IS MOVING WESTWARD 15-20 KT. SURGE OF E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. IN ADDITION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED SIMILAR WINDS. CONVECTION IS LESS WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE WAVE THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. THE WAVE WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI MOVING W OF THE AREA SAT. WILL KEEP CURRENT E WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 50W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND REACH NEAR 62W THU. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO REVEAL A WEAKER SIGNATURE THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W ...BUT SHOULD HELP KEEP TRADES AT LIGHT-MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE S PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND OVER MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WIND SPEEDS HERE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOME PENDING BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS. MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING FRI AND THROUGH MON S THE ATLC RIDGE PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SW N ATLC ZONE. WINDS ACROSS REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE