000 AGXX40 KNHC 210514 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM WED JUN 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE W N-ATLC AND E SEABOARD OF THE CONUS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SW ALONG 31N80W THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 24N82W TO ANOTHER WEAK CYCLONE AT 19N94W. SUBSIDENCE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH ATTM. TAN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RIDGE ORIGINATES FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77W...AND EXTENDS NE TO WELL BEYOND 31N68W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE BUT IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AND MENTION IN TEXT PRODUCTS MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC WATERS AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 32N40W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD W OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING NE FROM OLD MEXICO ACROSS N FL ON THE WEEKEND. LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS IS NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN 24 HOURS RIDGING W ALONG 30N W OF 77W BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE RIDGE NEAR 30N92W IN 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE TILL SAT...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N...AND ALONG 27N SUN...AS A WEAK TROUGH SLIPS SE AND STALLS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INITIAL STRENGTH AND FUTURE MOVEMENT OF TROUGH WITH SOME SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT. I WILL CONTINUE TO DENOTE A SURFACE TROUGH ON GRAPHICS THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH SE 15 KT...OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...NEAR TROUGH AXIS....MAX SEAS 8 FT. A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 22 KT...WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALSO SHIFTING W AND THUS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE...BUT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. ELY 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS...AND 10-15 KT IN THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE THROUGH FRI...THEN GRADIENT WEAKENS ON SAT AND SUN IN CARIBBEAN....BUT INCREASES IN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH CARIBBEAN ON THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON