000
AGXX40 KNHC 181731
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM SUN JUN 18 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA AND IT WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN TROUGH FRIDAY.  A RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE 
IS OVER THE TEXAS COAST AND WILL BE STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY 
THEN THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND DISSIPATE 
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY.  A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER 
THE GULF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE 
LITTLE DIRECT EFFECT ON THE SURFACE WINDS BUT WILL INFLUENCE THE 
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH MORE CONVECTION WITHIN THE 
TROUGH REGIONS.

SURFACE...
LARGE WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE AREA.  THE RIDGE 
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH REACHING NEAR 30N IN THE ATLANTIC AND 
THE NORTH GULF COAST TUESDAY AND IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE 
WEAK RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 28N WEDNESDAY THEN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE 
BACK NORTH AND BE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.  A WELL DEFINED...
AT LEAST CONVECTIVELY..TROPICAL IS ALONG 51W AND WILL MOVE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY BUT THE GFS FORECAST MODEL WEAKENS THE 
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE BY THEN.  THE STRONGEST 
WINDS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL OCCUR IN THE TYPICAL AREA OFF 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA WITH NEAR 25 KNOT 
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.  THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME FRIDAY AS 
THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER NORTH.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL