000 AGXX40 KNHC 171817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM SAT JUN 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO 28N80 TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT S TO NEAR 31N MON AND TUE AND TO 30N WED AND THU. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE PROCESS OF CROSSING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 61W S OF 20N. VERY ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND BY THIS WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS PRESENT N OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-59W. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS PROHIBITING CONVECTION FROM PROGRESSING TO THE W...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NE PART OF THE E CARIBBEAN. MODELS AGREE THAT SOME PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF THE WAVE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT THEN TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU. EARLIER RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS WHERE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW FROM THIS TROUGH SE OF BERMUDA TUE/WED BEFORE MOVING IT FURTHER N AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...12 UTC CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODEL RUNS NOW INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL RUN. 12 UTC RUNS OF THE UKMET...NAM AND GFS PICK THIS FEATURE AS TROUGH AND ALSO TAKE IT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND THROUGH THU. SW N ATLC...WINDS N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH ARE NE 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT AS SEEN IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SINGLED OUT IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BUOY 41010 IS AGAIN REPORTING NEAR 20 KT OF WINDS FROM THE NE AFTER COMING DOWN IN SPEED EARLIER IN THE MORNING. IT ALSO REPORTS SEAS UP TO 7 FT. AGAIN THIS IS HIGHER THAN NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES OF 5 FT FOR THE NW ATLC. BASED ON THIS WILL DELAY THE DECREASE OF WINDS N OF THE TROUGH TILL SUN MORNING. WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS N OF THE TROUGH ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN THE NWW3 FOR TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. WILL MAKE THIS ADJUSTMENT ON THIS PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...WINDS WILL BE E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS ABOUT 4-6 FT. WINDS CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON WITH THE RIDGE BEING THE MAIN FEATURE. POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SELY WINDS E OF THE TROUGH TUE AND WED. SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE E PART NEAR THE TROUGH TUE AND WED AND ALONG 30N/31N BY THU WHERE 24 HR TOTAL PRECIPITATION VALID 120 HR FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATES NEAR 7 INCHES. GULF OF MEXICO...SE-S WINDS OF 20 KT OBSERVED WEARIER THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR W GULF HAVE DECEASED SOME JUST DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS. SEAS UP TO 9 FT SEEN EARLIER DURING THE MORNING HAVE DECEASED TO 7 FT. WILL KEEP CURRENT GOING FOR FIRST 2 PERIODS OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE...THEN KEEP PRESENT TREND OF DECREASING WINDS MON THROUGH THU. OVER REMAINDER OF THE GULF WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WESTERN GULF...1-2 MIDDLE AND 2 FT OR LESS EASTERN PORTION THROUGH TUE UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF WESTERN EXTENT OF ATLC RIDGE PROTRUDING WESTWARD ALONG NORTHERN GULF. THEN WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER FORMING OVER THE NE GULF WED AND THU...I DO EXPECT WINDS HERE TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED AND THU WITH SEAS DOWN TO 1 FOOT. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL RUN ABOUT 1-2 FT WED AND THU...EXCEPT 2-3 FT SW PART. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...BASED ON A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS OF 20-25 KT NEAR 14N74W AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING...I DECIDED TO UP WINDS TO 20-25 KT FOR TONIGHT AND SUN FOR SW CARIBBEAN AND W PART OF THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 70W. ALSO BUMPED SEAS UP SLIGHTLY TO 8 FT HERE. DO PLAN ON KEEPING SEAS AT AROUND THE 9 FT OR 10 FT MAX RANGE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS LONG DURATION OF MODERATE TRADES OVER LARGE FETCH AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN E OF 79W AND ALSO OVER THE SW PART OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEAS S OF 15N W OF 68W. WITH HEAVY CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W...I EXPECT WINDS HERE TO REMAIN IN THE E-SE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE CONVECTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A LIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP E WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH MOST OF MON TILL THE NEXT WAVE NOW ALONG 42W ENTERS THIS ZONE LATE MON AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 16N TUE AND WED THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KT THU. THE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 15N SHOULD LIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED BY MON MORNING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE