000
AGXX40 KNHC 170539 RRA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 AM SAT JUN 17 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

DISSIPATING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW 
TO THE NRN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. 
HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD 
SOUTHWARD AND BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS 
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH TO 
ALONG 31N LATE MON/TUE. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL EXIT THE 
CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE SECOND MORE ACTIVE WAVE OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WNW. THIS WAVE 
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AS TROUGH REMAINS 
OVER THE W ATLC. GFS STILL INDICATING THAT THE NRN PORTION OF 
THIS WAVE WILL PROGRESS NW AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS TUE. CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS TRY TO 
DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH SE OF BERMUDA TUE/WED. 
BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL STICK WITH GFS SOLUTION FOR 
NOW.

SW N ATLC...WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT ARE A LITTLE HIGHER 
EARLY THIS MORNING THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. BUOY 41010 HAS 
REPORTED 19 KT WINDS WITH SEAS NOW UP TO 8 FT. THIS IS ABOUT 
3 FT HIGH THAN NWW3 INITIALIZED. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT ARE 
FORECAST TO DECREASE THIS MORNING SO WILL MONITOR LATEST OBS 
TO ADJUST FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. BY TONIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 
E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FT.
WINDS CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON WITH RIDGE THE MAIN FEATURE. 
POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SELY WINDS E OF THE TROUGH TUE AND 
WED. SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE E PART 
NEAR THE TROUGH TUE/WED.

GULF OF MEXICO...SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF 
THE WESTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS HAVE REACHED 8 FT OFF 
THE TEXAS COAST. AS EXPECTED THIS WAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NWW3 
FORECAST. WINDS TO REMAIN IN THIS RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS 
FORECAST TO DECREASE SUN THROUGH WED. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE 
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NWW3 
IS FORECASTING OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. MAY ADJUST UPWARD 
SLIGHTLY.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...EVENING QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUED
TO DETECT AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GFS 
HAS BACKED OFF ON DECREASING THESE WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN 20 KT 
WINDS OVER THE S SECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUN NIGHT/MON 
20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN OFF THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA 
AND COLOMBIA. MODERATE E-SE WINDS FORECAST OVER THE N HALF OF 
THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH LIGHTER 
TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF 15N SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NWWD 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN