000
AGXX40 KNHC 161817 RRA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
215 PM FRI JUN 16 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL 
SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...ASSOCIATED HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT 
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS AND SEAS IN 
THE WESTERN GULF ARE UP TO 20 KT CURRENTLY...BUT SHOULD 
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
EAST. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 58W WILL MOVE 
EAST AT 15 KT INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...BUT IS 
DAMPENING OUT. THIS WILL PRECLUDE WINDS FROM STRENGTHENING 
APPRECIABLY OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. THE 
EXCEPTION IS THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE 
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS IS ADDING TO PERSISTENT STRONG E 
TO NE WINDS OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE IN THE 
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40W CONTINUES 
WEST AT 15 KT. GFS AND NOGAPS STILL SHOWING THIS FEATURE MOVING 
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THIS 
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SW N ATLC...FRONT OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS 
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT...BECOMING GENERALLY A CONVERGENT LINE 
WEST OF 70W. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVER THE 
WESTERN ATLC THIS WEEKEND...LEAVING THE REMNANT TROUGH MORE OR 
LESS STATIONARY AROUND THE BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE...AFOREMENTIONED 
TROUGH MOVING NORTHWEST OF THE ANTILLES PUSHES INTO THE SW ATLC 
E OF THE BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. NOGAPS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS 
FEATURE...MERGES IT WITH THE STATIONARY TROUGH LINE AND SPINS UP 
A LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS SCENARIO FOR 
NOW...AND FAVOR THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS IN SHOWING A WEAK OPEN 
WAVE. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN