000 AGXX40 KNHC 100611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM SAT JUN 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER MAY POSSIBLY BE IN THE VICINITY OF 18N85W WITH A WIND FIELD THAT IS STRONGEST OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. MUCH OF THE DATA IS RAIN-FLAGGED FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BUT MOST OF THE AREA FROM COZUMEL TO THE CAYMANS S TO 17N IS UNDER AT LEAST 20 KT...IF NOT MORE. ODDLY ENOUGH...THE WINDS AT BUOY 42056 HAVE DECREASED TO 6 KT WHILE 42057 IS UP TO 19 KT...SO THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME ORGANIZATION TO DO. HIGHEST WAVE OBSERVATION HAS BEEN 7 FT AT 42056 BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT 8 FT IS LOCATED JUST E NEAR THE STRONGEST TSTMS. MODEL LOCATION OF THE LOW IS A LITTLE IN QUESTION ESPECIALLY SINCE THE REAL CENTER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT ALL MODELS AGREE IN BRINING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OR JUST PAST CANCUN BY 00Z THIS EVENING. WILL ADDRESS GULF OF MEXICO CONCERNS BELOW. FOR THE CARIBBEAN...I WILL ASSUME THAT THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN TODAY AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT FOR TODAY'S FORECAST ON THE E/SE SIDE OF THE LOW (WITH POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION). ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...ATLC RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS AT LEAST 20 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS 55W LATE MON AND INCREASES WINDS TO 20-25 KT...SPREADING W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WATERS TUE AND WED. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VOLCANIC ASH FROM SOUFRIERE HILLS ON MONTSERRAT IN AREA N OF 16N E OF 66W BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH OF NESDIS IN WASHINGTON DC. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE IS IN PLACE ALONG 26N AND SHOULD KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. MAIN CONCERN IS TRACK OF AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM FROM THE E GULF ACROSS FLORIDA MON NIGHT WITH WINDS OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST INCREASING ON MON AND LASTING THROUGH WED AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF JACKSONVILLE OUT TO SEA. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...EXCEPT THE NAM...SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO YET TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN QUESTION. EVENING FORECAST INCREASED WINDS TO 25-30 KT FOR TUE SO I WILL LEAVE THIS WORDING BUT PERHAPS BEGIN THE CONDITIONS A LITTLE EARLIER ON MON. GULF OF MEXICO... ENTIRE FORECAST DEPENDS ON TRACK/INTENSITY OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE NAM AGREE ON THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BEING WITHIN 60 NM OF 23N88W IN 24 HRS. AFTER THAT...EACH MOVES THE LOW...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH VARYING EVOLUTIONS. ULTIMATELY THEY DO TAKE A SYSTEM NE ACROSS N FLORIDA IN THE MON/MON NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONGEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE TO THE E OF THE LOW WHICH WOULD COVER THE ENTIRE E GULF AND PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST OF 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ADDRESSES THIS WELL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA MON NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING ON TUE AND WED...POSSIBLY WITH A TRAILING TROUGH STRETCHING NE/SW ACROSS THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG