000 AGXX40 KNHC 091722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM FRI JUN 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MUCH OF OUR ATTENTION TURNING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVIOUSLY NOTED HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED AROUND 18N86W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO WRN CUBA. ALL MODELS SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM IN VARIOUS DEGREES AS WELL AS A MOVEMENT TO THE N OVER YUCATAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT 48 HRS. ONCE IN THE GULF...MODELS DIVERGE IN TRACKING WITH HEAVIER CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE N THEN TURNING NE ACROSS N FLORIDA SRN GEORGIA INTO WRN N ATLC. STILL HARD TO PREDICT TIMING AND STRENGTH SINCE NO CLEAR CENTER HAS BEEN DEFINED YET BUT OVERALL FORECAST WILL INCREASE WIND AND SEAS IN A NLY TRACK WHILE MONITORING ITS DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER E...ATLC RIDGE WELL BUILT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN ATLC HAS STRONG TRADES OVER S HALVES OF TRPCL N ATLC AND ERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED TRPCL N ATLC EARLIER TODAY ALSO CARRIES AN INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS E OF AXIS NOW ALONG 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... TAME AND QUIET CONDITIONS OVER GULF SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE EARLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRES FROM WRN CARIBBEAN CROSSES YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONGER WIND AND HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED MAINLY IN ERN SIDE OF TROUGH AND CLOSE TO THE STILL UNKNOWN CENTER POSITION OF LOW PRES CENTER...BUT EXPECTED TO BE ALONG CENTRAL GULF WHICH SHOULD PUT ERN HALF OF GULF UNDER ITS THREAT. AT THIS POINT HEAVY CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE MORE PREDOMINANT THAN WIND AND SEAS. OTHERWISE...GULF SEEMS QUIET. SW N ATLC... OLD FRONTAL TROUGH LIFTING NE WITH BARELY SOME REMNANTS CONDITIONS LEFT IN NE CORNER OF BASIN. HIGH PRES RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN S-SW FLOW IN NRN HALF WITH E-SE ON SRN HALF THROUGH MOST OF FORECAST PERIOD WITH DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS LATE IN OUTLOOK AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES FROM GULF OF MEXICO CROSSING INTO ATLC INCREASES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES