000 AGXX40 KNHC 090552 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM FRI JUN 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH IS OSCILLATING E-W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS NOAA BUOY 42056 (WHICH HAS BEEN NE THEN SE THEN NE AGAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HRS OR SO). THE AXIS NOW APPEARS TO STRETCH FROM NE HONDURAS (WITH LOWEST PRESSURES INLAND) NE TOWARDS THE ISLE OF YOUTH WITH WINDS NOW RUNNING NEAR 15 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH...AND EVEN A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 21 KT AT BUOY 42057 AT 0300 UTC. SEAS ARE STARTING TO BUILD SLIGHTLY WITH THESE WINDS IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE FROM BUOY 42057 EWD. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS POTENTIAL SPIN-UP OF A LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH...WHICH THE 00Z GFS RUN IS ADVERTISING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH A NWD MOVEMENT PAST CANCUN ON SAT. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN GO WITH THE NWD TRACK NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE THE NOGAPS...UKMET... ECMWF...AND NAM ALL TAKE THE LOW NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR NOW I WILL CONTINUE REFERENCING A TROUGH IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE FEATURE SHOULD MOVE N/NW AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE SAT ANYWAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANT WIND/WEATHER WILL OCCUR TO THE E OF THE AXIS. SEE GULF SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION. FARTHER E...WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECAST OF W CARIBBEAN LOW/TROUGH THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BE UNABLE TO BUILD W AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THROUGH AND WILL KEEP THE TRADES MAINLY IN THE 20 KT RANGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON MON IS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THE RECENT MODEL RUNS BUT THE 20-25 KT FORECAST BEHIND THE AXIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. SW N ATLC... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING N THROUGH THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE OVERRIDING FEATURE AND IS PRODUCING SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. S/SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LOCATED IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA E OF JACKSONVILLE...A SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BECOMES THE MAINSTAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUILDING ALONG 25N/26N THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING N TO 28N/29N BY TUE. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW THAT IT SPINS UP FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SYSTEM NE ACROSS FLORIDA MON AND TUE WITH A STRENGTHENED WIND FIELD. I WILL DISCOUNT THIS SCENARIO IN THE FORECAST AND OPT FOR A MORE WRN TRACK WHICH WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON TUE. OF COURSE THIS BEARS WATCHING AS WITH ANY NON-DEVELOPED TROPICAL SYSTEM. GULF OF MEXICO... PERHAPS ONE MORE DAY OF THE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT HAND AND THEN CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. GFS NOW GOES GANGBUSTER ON BRINGING A TROPICAL STORM N/NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E GULF OVER THE WEEKEND BUT I SEE NO NEED TO LATCH ONTO THIS YET SINCE A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SAFEST BET SEEMS TO BE TO GO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL LIFT NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS THE NW GULF BY MON AND TUE...WITH THE MENTION OF A LOW ALONG THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL STILL BE OUTLINED AROUND THE TROUGH SINCE THE EXACT NATURE/ MOVEMENT OF THE POSSIBLE LOW IS UNCLEAR. FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS N...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E AND MIDDLE GULF...AND GO WITH PERSISTENCE THROUGH TUE UNTIL THE EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT AND WILL HELP CAUSE PLENTY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG