000
AGXX40 KNHC 081736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
140 PM THU JUN 08 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 
POSSIBLE LOW PRES CENTER OFF BELIZE COAST.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO 
MOVE NW OVER YUCATAN OUT OF NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI OR SAT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER GULF IS FORCED INTO SW N ATLC TIGHTENING 
GRADIENT AND INCREASING TRADES ACROSS CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL 
ATLC FROM 12N TO 20N THROUGH REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  

TROPICAL WAVES NOW ALONG 52W SHOULD ENTER TROPICAL ATLC BY MON 
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AS IT CROSSES BASIN.  

SW N ATLC...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA NE ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS TO NEAR 31N66W. MOST MODELS PUSH TROUGH E FORCED BY GULF 
OF MEXICO RIDGE PUSHING INTO SW N ATLC AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES 
OF SE COAST.  TROUGH INCREASES WIND AND SEAS AHEAD AS IT MOVES 
OUT OF AREA BY TUE. 

GULF OF MEXICO...
BASIN LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WORSE.  
HIGH PRES 1015 MB NEAR 28N89W SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS AND DRIFTING... 
EVER SO SLOWLY...MOST LIKELY NW.  MODELS DIFFER IN TRAJECTORY 
AND TIMING...AS WELL AS INTENSITY OF LOW PRES.  FORECAST FOLLOWS 
COMPROMISE ON BAMS MODELS AND RUNNING NW TRACK THROUGH 72 HRS 
THEN TURNING MORE WLY COURSE N OF 26N.  

AS LOW PRES PROGRESSES NW...THE NE QUADRANT SHOULD BEAR 
STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS THROUGH PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME IT 
IS NOT EXPECTED YET TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  REMAINDER 
GULF OF MEXICO MORE TAME AND QUIET.    

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES