000 AGXX40 KNHC 080539 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM THU JUN 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STILL DEALING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING W WITH BUOY 42056 VEERING FROM NE TO SE AROUND 2000 UTC. THE TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BROADENED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...BUT STILL STRETCHES NE ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN DRIFTS IT INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN...AND SIMULTANEOUSLY INCREASING SE WINDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO GULF OF HONDURAS AS IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM MODELS ARE ALL TRENDING TOWARDS A SIMILAR SOLUTION SO WILL LIKELY BUMP WINDS UP A BIT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE E OF 70W WILL KEEP AT LEAST 20 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH MON. MET-8 IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE MAY HAVE JUST MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. THE AXIS MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND THE GFS/NWW3 INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO 30 KT AND 14 FT RESPECTIVELY...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT AND WILL MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. SW N ATLC... BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 28N70W AND SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N ALONG 29N. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS HANG THE TROUGH OVER THE W PART OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI THEN BEGIN TO BUILD THE RIDGE ALONG 25N SAT THROUGH MON. THE GFS STILL SPINS UP SPURIOUS LOWS ALONG THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATES THEN NE BUT SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO SINCE IT HAS NOT BEEN HAPPENING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT AND INCREASES WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA FOR ONLY ABOUT A 6-12 HR PERIOD. THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES JUST N OF THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WLY BY SAT. THIS MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS S OF CAPE FEAR. GULF OF MEXICO... FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SUDDENLY BECOME TRICKIER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SAT...THEN VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SPIN-UP OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH MOVES INTO THE SW GULF LATE SUN OR MON. CURRENT FORECAST INCREASES WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION ON MON...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS WORDING WITH THE ADDED MENTION OF A SURFACE LOW SINCE SO MANY OF THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION. STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NE/E QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG