000 AGXX40 KNHC 071744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM WED JUN 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AS OF 15 UTC EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH A DECENT FETCH OF SE-S WINDS 10-15 KT ON THE E SIDE AND LIGHTER NE WINDS ON THE W SIDE. QUIKSCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS DUE TO ATLC RIDGING E OF 70W. FORECAST OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS RATHER COMPLICATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH CONNECTS TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE E PACIFIC. THE NAM/CMC MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT AND MOVE IT NWWD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SRN GOMEX. THE UKMET/ECMWF/GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NOGAPS HINT AT A WEAK LOW PRES/TROUGHING OVER THE W CARIB AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH INCREASING SE WINDS BEGINNING BY LATE FRI INTO SAT AND CONTINUING THESE WINDS INTO MON. THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED OVER THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WORKS IT WAY SLOWLY NWWD. THE ONLY OTHER FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH THE GFS FORECASTS INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND AS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IT IS STILL FAIRLY FAR IN THE FUTURE TO GAUGE EFFECTS... NONETHELESS THE FEATURE IS VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND ALSO TO BUILD SEAS ACCORDINGLY. SW N ATLC... UNUSUALLY LATE SEASON COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N72W WITH ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 31N69W TO 25N75W AND CONNECTING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UP NEAR 15 KT ALONG AND N OF 30N BUT SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES PULLS OUT TO THE NE. GFS HAS A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE WINDS E OF THE FRONT...20-25 KT WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE EDGE OF THIS MORNINGS 0914 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE FRONT MOVES E AND DISSIPATES LATER TONIGHT OR THU...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HANGS AROUND NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS W ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 25N SAT AND SUN WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WWD BUILDING RIDGE IS KEEPING A SFC BOUNDARY/FRONT ALONG THE SE COAST AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GFS FORECAST OF BACKING OFF ON THIS BOUNDARY MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. GULF OF MEXICO... FOR NOW THE ONLY AREA OF RELATIVE TRANQUILITY IS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NRN FLORIDA WITH LIGHT NE/E WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SE FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH SAT. CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW CARIB MOVES INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE GOMEX WITH INCREASING SE WINDS TO 15-20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS. AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH THE EXTREME SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY THE NAM/CMC MODELS ARE DISCOUNTED BUT IN ANY EVENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE GIVEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RELATIVE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND BROAD LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB