000 AGXX40 KNHC 070518 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 AM WED JUN 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NE HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH WINDS NEAR 10 KT OR LESS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. LIGHT S/SE WINDS ALSO COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE WEAK GRADIENT. STRONGER GRADIENT LIES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS DUE TO ATLC RIDGING E OF 70W AND WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS ACCORDING TO SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT. RIDGE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W TO THE YUCATAN/BELIZE COAST THU/FRI AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN. NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH THE GFS BRINGS TO THE ERN DOORSTEP OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN NIGHT. STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO GAUGE EFFECTS...BUT IT SEEMS VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO INCREASE WINDS BEYOND THE NORMAL 20 KT TRADES AND ALSO TO BUILD SEAS ACCORDINGLY. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST SINCE STRONGEST EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE ON MON. SW N ATLC... LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A PSEUDO-COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALMOST DUE S ALONG 31N74W 27N75W THEN CONNECTING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UP NEAR 15 KT BUT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH TODAY. GFS IS STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WINDS IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IT IS INITIALIZING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS) AND SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WINDS ABOUT 15-20 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SCATTERED TSTMS SW OF BERMUDA. THE FRONT MOVES E AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT OR THU...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH HANGS AROUND NEAR THE BAHAMAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS W ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 25N SAT AND SUN WITH SWLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS IS BACKING OFF ON THIS BOUNDARY MAKING IT INTO THE AREA...SO WILL DISREGARD IT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST S OF MOBILE ALABAMA WITH LIGHT NE/E WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SE FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-2 FT WITH A FEW 3 FT LIKELY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN AND THE FORECAST REMAINS STATUS QUO THROUGH SUN. WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE OVER THE N GULF AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS S DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG