000 AGXX40 KNHC 060529 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM TUE JUN 06 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRES SHOWS UP NICELY IN SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM NE COAST OF HONDURAS PAST GRAND CAYMAN TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SHIP/BUOY/LAND OBSERVATIONS AS ADDITIONAL PROOF. WINDS ARE SELY ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND NELY ON THE W SIDE...BUT SPEEDS ARE RUNNING NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10-15 KT. A STRONG GRADIENT LIES TO THE E DUE TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLC...AND WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC ARE CURRENTLY ELY 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT THROUGH SAT WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY (PERHAPS SLOWLY DRIFTING W) OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND THE ELY TRADES 15-20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC... THE NRN EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BETWEEN ANDROS AND GREAT EXUMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA ARE CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS/TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 75W...YET A RIDGE IS LOCATED AT THE SURFACE ALONG 27N. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 31N76W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SE...STRETCHING FROM 31N72W TO ANDROS ISLAND AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SPINS UP A SPURIOUS LOW THAT ACCELERATES NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE GALE WINDS THAT GO WITH IT ALSO LOOK SPURIOUS (LIKELY CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN). THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NE AS SURFACE LOW PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCLUDES. ALTHOUGH THE GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK FALSE...SLY WINDS 20-25 KT LOOK REASONABLE AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THAT GIVEN BY THE GFS-UKMET-NOGAPS ENSEMBLE. RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN THU NIGHT BEFORE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FRI AND SAT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON SAT WITH ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL LOW SPIN-UP FORECAST BY THE GFS. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE E GULF AND E/SE WINDS OVER THE W GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT WITH ONLY PERHAPS A FEW EPISODES OF VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE OSCILLATES N TO S. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE NEAR 3 FT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO LONGER NE FETCH. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG