000 AGXX40 KNHC 050558 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM MON JUN 05 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRES PATTERN TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES...ONE CURRENTLY FROM N FLORIDA TO JUST OFF THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE SECOND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. BOTH BOUNDARIES SHOULD DROP SWD AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE E UNITED STATES AND THE W ATLC THROUGH WED. NEITHER BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE MUCH WIND BUT WILL KEEP THE DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE. FARTHER S...A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LIE ROUGHLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF WATERS EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN PERHAPS MOVE NWD BY MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES DISSIPATE. BOTTOM LINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE N GULF WATERS AND NE TO E WINDS 10 TO OCCASIONALLY 15 KT OVER S GULF WATERS THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROUGH OVER W CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO COAST OF HONDURAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST THROUGH WED AND MOVE INLAND THU. OTHERWISE TYPICAL TRADES EXPECTED ALL ZONES WITH HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SW N ATLC... PATTERN SOMEWHAT COMPLEX FOR THE WARM SEASON AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPS SEWD AMPLIFYING AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE E UNITED STATES. THIS EVOLUTION WILL DRAG DOWN A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE W ATLC WATERS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY INTO TUE. THE GFS IS SHOWING A SECOND LOW FURTHER E ORIGINATING WITHIN THE AREA OF CONVECTION ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE RESULTING HIGHER WINDS/SEAS ARE REJECTED FOR NOW. IN LIGHT OF UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO MORE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH INDICATES SLY FLOW TO 20 KT IN ADVANCE OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME