000 AGXX40 KNHC 031800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM SAT JUN 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... GENERALLY WEAK TRADE WIND GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY OVER THE W PART OF THE AREA. MORNING QUIKSCAT PASSES SHOW E WINDS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE S PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT. INTERESTING FEATURE FOR THE DAY IS AN AREA OF LOW PRES SE OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND NEAR 12N81W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO GRAND CAYMAN. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 10 KT OR LESS AROUND THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE A HIGHER IN TSTMS WHICH ARE FORMING NEAR THE CENTER AND BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. THE 12Z GFS RUN AND THE 12Z ENSEMBLE OF THE GFS-UKMET-NOGAPS DRIFT THE LOW W INTO NICARAGUA BY SUN EVENING WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 84W AND ONLY DRIFTING SLOWLY W TO THE YUCATAN/BELIZE COAST BY THU. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPED A SPONTANEOUS LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW THIS THINKING. WINDS AND SEAS DON'T APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE AT THIS TIME. SW N ATLC... RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED ALONG 25N AND WILL BE STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUN BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SE MON THROUGH THU. WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. WILL LIKELY JUST GRAZE THE NW PART OF THE AREA ON SUN THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE OVERALL EFFECT TO THE WIND/SEA FIELD. MAJOR QUESTION MARK BEGINS LATE TUE THROUGH THU WHEN GFS SPINS A LOW UP NEAR CENTRAL CUBA (LIKELY FROM THE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN) THEN SLINGSHOTS IT NE. THE GFS-UKMET-NOGAPS ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS ON TUE AND DRIFT TO NEAR 74W/75W BY THU. SINCE EVEN THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AGGRESSIVENESS OF THE LOW...I WILL CITE A TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE DURING THE LATER PERIODS AND NOT ADVERTISE STRONGER WINDS. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY SW TO 27N90W BUT IS ONLY SHIFTING WINDS TO NW/N ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SEAS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ARE 1 FT EXCEPT TO 2 FT OVER THE FAR NE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY MON WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING NEAR 1 FT...THEN BECOME MORE NE/E MON THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES SETS UP ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SEAS WILL STILL RUN NEAR 1 FT N OF 25N...AND MAY BUILD TO 2-3 FT S OF 25N DUE TO A LITTLE SWELL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG