000 AGXX40 KNHC 030649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM SAT JUN 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 1-2 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. A WEAK COLD FRONT PRESENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING SW INTO THE THE NE GULF TO NEAR 27N88W WILL BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PORTION TONIGHT AND SUN OVER THE NE GULF. A WIND SHIFT IS BEING OBSERVED WITH THE FRONT...BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT...IN THE 10-15 KT EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND LOW PRES DEEPENS W OF THE GULF. NWW3 SEAS LOOK GOOD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N68W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG 25N TODAY THROUGH SUN AND MOVE E MON AND TUE. GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC MON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH 15 KT SAT AND SUN OVER THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC WITH WINDS 15-20 KT JUST N OF THE AREA THEN DECREASE MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF LOW PRES WILL BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS...HOWEVER...DIFFER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE LOW WIT THE GFS BEING THE ONLY NOW THAT TAKES IT NNE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TUE AND N OF THE AREA WED. THE CANADIAN TAKES IT N SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT KEEPS IT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATING IT BY TUE NIGHT. THE NAM/NOGAPS AND UKMET ALL TEND TO TRACK IT WNW TOWARDS HONDURAS OR NEARBY THAT PART OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. PRESENTLY...A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N78W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TSTM CLUSTERS WELL N OF THE LOW OCCURRING OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM S AND SW OF JAMAICA. BASED ON THIS DO THINK THAT THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. BUT AS TO FUTURE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WILL WAIT FOR UPDATED MODEL RUNS BEFORE MAKING A DEFINITE DECISION AS TO HOW TO INCORPORATE IT THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH RESPECT TO ITS WIND AFFECTS ON OFFSHORE WATERS. OF NOTE...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DIFFERENT LOW EVOLVES NEAR THE BAHAMAS MON AND QUICKLY MOVES N OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TRENDS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES OF SHOWING SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC GOING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND UPDATE THESE CONDITIONS PENDING SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ALONG WITH FUTURE TRACK OF LOW DERIVED FROM SURFACE ANALYSES. TRADES CONTINUE ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL 15-20 KT TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN W OF 68W...AND THE AREA S OF 15N OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. EXPECT TRADES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH WED OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND ALSO THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF ABOUT 15N AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE ATLC HIGH BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER GRADIENT COULD BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED IF THE CARIBBEAN LOW PRES DOES MATERIALIZE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE