000
AGXX40 KNHC 020558
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM FRI JUN 02 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO RESULT
IN LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE 2-3 FT W 
OF 90W AND 1-2 FT E OF 90W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. THE ONLY NEW FEATURE EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE GULF IS A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. 
THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRI...THEN
PUSH OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE FRI OR EARLY SAT
MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...THE FRONT 
WILL STAGGER ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER IN SAT
THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING MON AND TUE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIGHT...IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW 
GULF SAT THROUGH MON...BECOMING SE 10-15 KT ON TUE AS HIGH PRES
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.

NWW3 SEAS LOOK GOOD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO 
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 27N73W EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NWD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG 
25N TODAY THROUGH SUN AND MOVE E MON AND TUE. GULF OF MEXICO
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC MON BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH 15-20 KT
SAT AND SUN OVER THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC THEN DECREASE
MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF 
LOW PRES MOVES NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW N ATLC EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. THIS NEW SCENARIO INDICATED BY THE MODELS IS QUITE 
DIFFERENT FROM WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THE PAST FEW DAYS 
AS IT NOW APPEARS THAT IF LOW DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE A SEPARATE 
ENTITY UNRELATED TO THE FRONT AND WITH ORIGINS IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. WILL WAIT FOR UPDATED MODELS RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING 
LOW PRES IN THE FORECAST AS THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE 
WIND FORECAST TO MUCH HIGHER RANGES FOR THE SW N ATLC MON AND 
TUE OF NEXT WEEK.

TRADES CONTINUE ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND 
TROPICALN ATLC WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL 15-20 KT TRADES 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN W OF 68W. AM HARD PRESSED 
TO FIND ANY WIND ABOVE 15 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. 
EXPECT TRADES TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC S OF ABOUT 15N AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE ATLC 
HIGH BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED...AND FURTHER ENHANCEMENT TO 
GRADIENT IF LOW PRES DOES MATERIALIZE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND 
MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE