000 AGXX40 KNHC 010656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM THU JUN 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOUND OVER THE GULF IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT THE EXTREME EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE E WINDS ARE 15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE 2-4 FT W OF 90W AND 1-2 FT E OF 90W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MON AS THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. THE ONLY NEW FEATURE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF IS A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FRI MORNING...THEN PUSH OFF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATER ON FRI. MODELS PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF SAT AND SUN AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS...POSSIBLY INTO A TROUGH...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE SUN INTO MON. WIND GUIDANCE FROM ALL MODELS INDICATES THAT A WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF SAT THROUGH MON. NWW3 INITIAL GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD...AND I PLAN ON USING IT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SHARP SURFACE TROUGH THAT 24 HOURS AGO WAS JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER FLORIDA...AND AT 0600 UTC WAS ANALYZED OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 30N81W-25N81W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH...AND ONLY AFFECT ON OFFSHORE WOULD BE TO ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTMS SOME ALONG THE E GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES WWD AND GRADUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE. A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE ATLC FROM 28N65W SW TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ROUGHLY ALONG 25N FRI AND SAT...THEN RETREATS SOME SUN AND MON IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT SUN AS INDICATED BY GFS/NAM AND UKMET WIND FIELD GUIDANCE. BY MON FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC. ALL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE EUROPEAN TEND TO DEVELOP LOW PRES NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON AND QUICKLY TRACK IT NE THROUGH MON NIGHT. EUROPEAN DEVELOPS WHAT AT FIRST APPEARS TO BE A FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE MON. STILL WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS IN ORDER TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. FOR THE MOST PART...TRADES REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ONLY A SMALL POCKET OF 15-20 KT TRADES EXIST FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-78W. HOWEVER... TRADES ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SAT... AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING LATE SAT THROUGH MON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE ATLC HIGH E OF THE SW N ATLC BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE