000
AGXX40 KNHC 310739 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
330 AM WED MAY 31 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF ABOUT 
91W WITH SEAS 4 -6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BUOY 42019 IS 
STILL REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 19 KT WITH SIMILAR REPORTS ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WIND 
AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE GULF...E WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE IN THE RANGE 
OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT AS A WEAK PRES PREVAILS TAKES HOLD
OF THE GULF. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
REST OF THE WEEK AS WEEK HIGH PRES MAINTAINS ITS GRASP ON THE 
AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE 
NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE COASTAL 
WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE N COAST OF TEXAS SAT 
AND SUN. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A
WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT PRESENTLY IT APPEARS
THAT WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH VARIABLE WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF SAT AND SUN.

A RATHER SHARP SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 23.5N79W
...OR ABOUT 60-90 NM E OF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING W 15 KT. 
WINDS ARE LIGHT...IN THE 10 KT RANGE...ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE EVIDENT TO THE W O
THE TROUGH...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
E OF THE TROUGH TO NEAR 71W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE EXTREME E 
GULF BY EARLY THU THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED 
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM NEAR 25N65W TO THE SE 
BAHAMAS. AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS 
IDENTIFIED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 31N71W THROUGH 26N74W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA. PREVIOUS SURFACE LOW PRES CENTERS ANALYZED ALONG 
THE SURFACE TROUGH HAVE BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS TROUGH REMAINS 
RATHER BROAD AND PRES HERE HAVE NOT DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER 
THE PAST 18-24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN 
DEPICTING NEW LOWS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT 
WITH THE GFS STILL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...I DO THINK THAT 
WHATEVER LOW DOES FORM WILL BE WEAK AND SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE 
NE PART OF THE AREA EARLY THU EVENING. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO 
ALIGNED ITSELF ALONG 25N FRI AND SAT...THEN RETREAT SOME SUN AS 
THE WEAK GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR N PORTION OF 
THE SW N ATLC LATE SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS SIMILAR TO THOSE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NE GULF WITH THIS FRONT. GFS DEVELOPS A LOW 
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW PART SUN AND QUICKLY MOVES IT N OF 
THE SW N ATLC SUN NIGHT. NOGAPS/NAM ALSO DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE 
FRONT BUT NOT UNTIL SUN NIGHT NEAR THE W BAHAMAS AND ALSO 
QUICKLY MOVE IT N OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. THINK IT IS TOO 
PREMATURE TO MENTION ANY OF THESE LOW SCENARIOS FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...SINCE MODELS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AT THE 
PRESENT TIME. WILL WAIT ON OTHER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY 
CONTINUE WITH DEPICTION OF THESE LOWS AND TO THEN THINK OF 
PERHAPS MAKING SOME MENTION OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG FRONT FOR 
SUN AND MON.

FOR THE MOST PART...TRADES REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. ONLY A SMALL POCKET OF
15-20 KT TRADES EXIST S OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-73W. HOWEVER...
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU...AND OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING
LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE ATLC 
HIGH E OF THE SW N ATLC BECOMING MORE SETTLED. OTHERWISE LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE