000 AGXX40 KNHC 280600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM SUN MAY 28 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC WATERS...HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM 30N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER MON AND TUE THEN BECOME REPOSITIONED ACROSS THE N PART WED-THU. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NW PART...THEN WEAKENS HAS IT MOVES BACK NW TOWARDS THE SE U.S. COAST. GFS IS CONTINUING ITS TREND OF DEVELOPING TROUGH FROM HISPANIOLA NE TO NEAR 26N65W. WE DO NOT SEE EVIDENCE OF TROUGH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE EXTREME W PORTION OF OLD FRONT/SHEAR AXIS IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THIS AREA AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FEATURE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS LARGE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE W ATLC BY MON. THIS MAY INCREASE SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND AGAIN HELP TO DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH. MAY SEE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE E PORTION NEAR THE EXPECTED TROUGH. OTHER MODELS DO FORECAST THE TROUGH...SO BELIEVE IT WILL DEVELOP...BUT WILL NOT GO AS AGGRESSIVE WITH WINDS AS SEEN IN THE GFS. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 KT OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT NEAR TROUGH AND/OR TSTM ACTIVITY. GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 27N85W WITH RIDGE W ACROSS THE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SE BREEZES...15-20 KT...EXPECTED OVER THE W GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. W GULF BUOY 42002 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 21 KT. WINDS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY TUE AND SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THU. NWW3 SEAS LOOK REASONABLE WITH 4-6 FT FORECAST OVER THE W GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. GREAT BOATING WEATHER WITH LOWEST WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST OVER THE NE AND E GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...GREAT EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS DATA HAS HELP TO DEFINE THE AREA OF WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. AREA OF WINDS HAS SHRUNK SINCE YESTERDAY WITH 20-25 KT CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. WITH ATLC RIDGE WEAKENING LATE TODAY MON WINDS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MON/TUE. THEY MAY INCREASE BACK TO 20-25 KT WED/THU. MODERATE SELY WINDS STILL FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE THROUGH TODAY. ELSEWHERE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NWW3 SEAS MAY BE A FOOT OR TOO LOW ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST THROUGH TODAY. THEY LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BROWN