000
AGXX40 KNHC 270558
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM SAT MAY 27 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC WATERS...HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 
29N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND RETREAT EAST SUN.
MODERATE SWLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE EXTREME N PORTION OF THE 
AREA TODAY. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS SUN...WINDS DECREASE MOST AREAS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW PORTION. AN EXTREMELY WEAK FRONT OR 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OVER THE AREA 
LATE SUN...THEN REACH FROM 31N75W TO N CENTRAL FLORIDA MON. 
THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT BACK NW TUE AND BE NW OF 
THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT IN VICINITY OF 
THE FRONT WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO NE EXPECTED BEHIND IT. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE RETURNS ACROSS THE N PORTION WED. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH/LOW DOES SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY 
INCREASE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS. IN 
FACT...GFS TRIES TO SPIN UP A COUPLE WEAK LOWS OVER THE SE 
PORTION LATE SUN/MON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS IS THE TYPICAL 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM AND WILL IGNORE FOR NOW. WILL 
CARRY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE WIND/WAVE GRAPHICS AT 
48-72 HOURS. 
 
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE 
SOME OVER THE WESTERN GULF...REACHING 15-20 KT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA W OF 90W TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE 
THROUGH MON...THEN DECREASE A LITTLE TUE/WED. NWW3 SEAS LOOK 
REASONABLE AS IT BUILDS THEM TO 4 TO 6 FT BY SUN MORNING. 
E OF 90W BETTER BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT 
WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT. LIGHTEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NE PORTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...ATLC RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
A FAIRLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  
THIS IS RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NW 
VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. SEAS LIKELY TO CONTINUE A COUPLE 
FEET HIGHER THAN AS INDICATED BY NWW3. WINDS ALSO AROUND 20 KT 
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THREE 
TIMELY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AT 0000 UTC HELP TO CONFIRM THIS. THIS 
AREA OF WINDS EXTENDS A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN SHOWN BY GFS. 

WITH ATLC RIDGE WEAKENING LATE SUN-TUE...WINDS FORECAST TO 
DECREASE OVER BOTH OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...MAY CONTINUE TO
SEE A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA. LIGHTER TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH WED.
 
WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN